NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	105		Excitement	6.1 [625]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +40.9%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.6 [993]		LVP	Trae Young (ATL): -22.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.28	0.22	0.09	0.03	18	81%	0.30	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	75%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	15	48%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Onyeka Okongwu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Huerter	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	45%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Trae Young	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.2,-0.12,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.15	-0.03	20	57%	0.08	10	-0.31	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.35	0.09	0.03	25	73%	0.41	0	0.00	12	92%	0.04
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.02	6	73%	0.17	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.01	10	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.03	8	43%	0.07	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.03	11	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	56%	0.06	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	3.4	33.4	16.4	29.4	2.8	34.0	149.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.4%

MIA +14.8%

ATL -8.3%

MIA +13.6%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	14.7	14.5	106.1	113.9	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		114.3	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		107.6	113.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.3	14.9	15.8	12.6	14.1
MIA	12.9	15.1	14.2	16.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delon Wright	60	61	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.17	8	-18	26	13.2	15.4	-2.20	15.9	12.8	3.13
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	7	7	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.04	-1	-9	8	12.6	14.2	-1.65	11.9	14.9	-3.05
Onyeka Okongwu	39	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-6	2	13.4	14.5	-1.10	15.8	14.0	1.87
Bogdan Bogdanovic	58	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-10	10	13.7	14.7	-0.95	16.0	12.9	3.06
Danilo Gallinari	46	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	1	-12	14.7	13.6	1.11	13.0	16.2	-3.25
John Collins	60	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-4	-2	14.5	13.4	1.10	14.0	15.8	-1.87
De'Andre Hunter	73	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	14.0	14.5	-0.54	14.8	14.5	0.31
Trae Young	84	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	1	-12	14.1	14.3	-0.20	14.6	15.3	-0.75
Kevin Huerter	68	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.06	-17	7	-24	15.1	11.8	3.34	14.0	16.1	-2.10

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	83	81	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.07	19	-9	28	14.1	17.4	-3.35	14.6	11.9	2.64
Kyle Lowry	77	76	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.15	12	-2	14	14.8	14.2	0.58	14.1	14.0	0.13
Caleb Martin	35	33	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	4	2	15.9	14.0	1.91	14.4	14.0	0.39
Max Strus	47	47	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.12	6	4	2	13.9	15.4	-1.57	14.0	14.2	-0.19
Dewayne Dedmon	28	27	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	3	4	15.5	14.4	1.12	14.1	14.1	0.01
P.J. Tucker	51	51	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.08	5	5	0	13.8	15.6	-1.84	14.7	13.5	1.25
Bam Adebayo	51	51	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	11	-12	14.5	14.9	-0.41	13.7	14.5	-0.73
Gabe Vincent	53	51	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.04	2	8	-6	15.6	13.7	1.96	13.7	14.5	-0.81
Duncan Robinson	15	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	9	-8	13.1	15.0	-1.83	15.8	13.8	1.96
Tyler Herro	65	64	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.21	-7	17	-24	15.4	13.5	1.85	13.1	15.9	-2.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.82,0.77,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.75,0.78,0.89,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 79, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.0%
POR 91, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.98,1	93.0%
UTA 116, TOR 122	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.81,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	93.0%