NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	91		Excitement	6.0 [631]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +20.0%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.9 [853]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -18.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12	0.08	0.08	0.04	12	59%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.09
Wesley Matthews	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,0.07	0.01	0.07	0.01	15	50%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.01	6	62%	0.04	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04	-0.03	0.01	0.02	8	69%	0.10	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.19	-0.03	-0.17	-0.00	15	43%	-0.16	1	-0.03	14	86%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2	0.20	0.04	0.17	0.00	23	58%	0.38	5	-0.18	9	67%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	10	58%	0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	9	61%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	59%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	25.5	15.4	27.4	2.4	35.0	131.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.0%

POR -30.3%

MIA +16.5%

MIA +7.3%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	15.8	15.1	101.1	101.1	105.2
season	15.1	15.6		109.6	109.7
opponent	15.8	14.8		105.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.8	14.9	20.4	14.1	15.8
MIA	14.6	13.9	17.5	17.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Robinson	30	31	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.07	7	-9	16	15.1	16.2	-1.17	15.6	15.9	-0.24
Meyers Leonard	28	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-6	10	16.6	15.5	1.06	15.4	16.0	-0.52
Will Barton	17	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-3	4	17.4	15.5	1.93	14.1	16.2	-2.14
Mo Williams	60	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-6	10	15.1	17.4	-2.28	15.7	16.0	-0.34
Dorell Wright	36	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	5	-12	16.7	15.2	1.51	15.2	16.2	-0.98
Wesley Matthews	67	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-3	4	15.9	15.7	0.26	17.0	12.3	4.70
Robin Lopez	62	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.31	-6	4	-10	15.5	16.6	-1.06	16.0	15.4	0.52
Nicolas Batum	75	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.43	-2	0	-2	15.6	17.2	-1.63	15.8	16.0	-0.23
Damian Lillard	75	77	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.34	-12	10	-22	16.2	14.1	2.05	15.6	17.0	-1.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	61	58	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-7	16	15.6	16.2	-0.54	16.1	15.3	0.83
LeBron James	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-2	6	15.7	16.2	-0.51	15.6	16.9	-1.31
Chris Bosh	62	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	-3	8	15.8	15.8	0.06	15.4	16.7	-1.30
Toney Douglas	35	35	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-10	22	15.0	16.3	-1.30	16.7	15.3	1.42
Greg Oden	28	28	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-6	14	16.1	15.7	0.49	17.5	15.1	2.46
Norris Cole	51	50	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.31	-3	5	-8	16.0	15.6	0.40	15.7	16.0	-0.37
Michael Beasley	31	29	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	-1	4	14.3	16.6	-2.28	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Ray Allen	61	59	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.48	-12	14	-26	16.6	14.3	2.23	15.2	17.1	-1.86
Chris Andersen	43	42	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.30	-11	13	-24	16.6	15.1	1.42	16.1	15.6	0.51
Shane Battier	16	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	7	-12	15.6	15.9	-0.29	15.4	15.9	-0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 92, PHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.3%
CLE 89, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.9,1,1	95.2%
MIL 76, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%