NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	125		Excitement	8.0 [274]		MVP	Malik Beasley (DET): +24.1%
Detroit Pistons	119		Comeback	2.4 [260]		LVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (DET): -17.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.10	-0.01	22	58%	0.26	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.04
Bobby Portis	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	13	61%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
AJ Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	5	90%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	7	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brook Lopez	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Taurean Prince	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	12	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	12	37%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.09	-0.01	16	66%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.20	0.02	0.02	21	78%	0.37	4	-0.17	4	75%	-0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.04	0.03	10	71%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	9	46%	-0.02	2	-0.10	6	17%	-0.14
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.13	0.01	10	30%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	26.4	14.8	34.1	1.8	37.2	141.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +0.9%

MIL +21.2%

MIL +7.2%

MIL +17.7%

MIL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	14.8	13.9	14.4	125.0	117.8	113.2
season	14.4	14.2		114.0	114.0
opponent	14.5	14.3		111.8	111.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.7	14.8	13.5	14.2	14.8
DET	13.3	15.2	14.2	13.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	78	80	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.20	22	-16	38	14.8	14.5	0.29	14.2	12.5	1.73
AJ Green	52	53	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-5	16	14.0	15.6	-1.64	13.8	14.0	-0.21
Gary Trent Jr.	53	52	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.30	6	0	6	13.8	15.9	-2.16	14.2	13.6	0.62
Ryan Rollins	35	35	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	-3	12	16.1	14.0	2.11	14.3	13.7	0.65
Bobby Portis	70	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.33	0	6	-6	14.1	16.4	-2.28	13.5	14.7	-1.20
Kevin Porter Jr.	65	66	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	9	-12	14.0	16.1	-2.11	13.7	14.3	-0.65
Taurean Prince	51	52	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	6	-6	15.4	14.1	1.31	13.6	14.2	-0.53
Kyle Kuzma	44	45	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	11	-16	16.2	13.7	2.52	14.0	13.8	0.12
Brook Lopez	52	51	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.12	-10	16	-26	15.6	13.9	1.72	13.8	14.0	-0.14

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	12	11	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-6	6	11.7	14.2	-2.52	13.4	14.9	-1.58
Tim Hardaway Jr.	55	51	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-11	16	13.6	14.2	-0.60	15.8	13.7	2.07
Paul Reed	20	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.10	-5	-1	-4	14.9	13.6	1.26	13.0	15.2	-2.21
Ausar Thompson	54	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	14.6	13.1	1.43	15.2	14.3	0.90
Ronald Holland II	27	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	1	-8	15.1	13.4	1.67	15.0	14.7	0.27
Dennis Schroder	58	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-3	0	14.2	13.4	0.82	14.1	15.8	-1.67
Cade Cunningham	76	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.36	0	-6	6	13.6	14.7	-1.10	15.1	13.7	1.40
Malik Beasley	60	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.17	-8	2	-10	13.3	14.7	-1.42	13.9	16.0	-2.12
Jalen Duren	81	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.45	1	-7	8	13.6	14.9	-1.26	15.2	12.9	2.32
Tobias Harris	62	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	2	-10	14.0	13.7	0.32	14.8	14.7	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 104, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.01,0	92.6%
HOU 105, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.01,0.01,0	92.2%
SAS 91, UTA 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.23,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	92.1%