NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	6.0 [579]		MVP	Caleb Martin (MIA): +22.9%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	1.8 [94]		LVP	Kristaps Porzingis (BOS): -16.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caleb Martin	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.18	0.04	-0.01	12	81%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.05	0.02	13	66%	0.15	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Haywood Highsmith	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.02	6	75%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.02	0.04	13	80%	0.20	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	110%	0.10	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.05	-0.03	13	47%	0.04	1	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.03	-0.03	23	63%	0.23	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Derrick White	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.02	8	76%	0.14	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.06	20	58%	0.06	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.02
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	12	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	9	27%	-0.12	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	3.0	28.2	16.4	28.6	3.5	33.2	138.8
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.8%

BOS -6.1%

BOS -1.9%

BOS -1.7%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	14.5	115.6	107.4	113.9
season	14.9	14.7		112.9	121.6
opponent	14.6	14.8		110.0	110.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	15.4	14.6	18.5	15.6
BOS	13.5	14.0	17.5	14.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	77	78	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.12	21	-11	32	15.3	16.7	-1.45	15.0	13.6	1.41
Bam Adebayo	79	79	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.11	20	-10	30	14.8	19.1	-4.31	15.1	12.7	2.46
Caleb Martin	74	71	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.14	15	-5	20	14.4	19.5	-5.15	15.0	13.8	1.20
Nikola Jovic	50	49	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	-1	12	14.7	16.5	-1.86	16.0	13.3	2.73
Haywood Highsmith	54	52	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	9	-8	16.0	15.0	1.06	13.5	16.3	-2.76
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	61	57	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.14	-1	11	-12	16.7	13.6	3.15	15.2	14.0	1.21
Delon Wright	40	39	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	15	-20	16.0	15.2	0.77	14.0	15.3	-1.25
Duncan Robinson	32	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	15	-20	17.2	14.8	2.37	13.6	15.4	-1.78
Kevin Love	13	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	17	-24	19.5	15.0	4.50	12.2	15.1	-2.94

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Hauser	28	29	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.11	8	-18	26	14.0	15.0	-0.99	17.8	14.6	3.23
Al Horford	48	49	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.21	8	-18	26	13.6	15.9	-2.27	15.4	15.8	-0.42
Jrue Holiday	71	75	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.32	10	-20	30	14.3	16.0	-1.62	16.3	13.1	3.17
Jayson Tatum	78	80	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-16	22	14.6	15.2	-0.55	16.7	9.9	6.76
Payton Pritchard	41	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-5	0	13.5	15.7	-2.12	15.2	15.9	-0.68
Jaylen Brown	75	75	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.06	-22	12	-34	15.1	13.2	1.91	15.0	17.7	-2.74
Derrick White	71	71	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.04	-23	13	-36	15.2	13.2	2.01	14.7	18.2	-3.50
Kristaps Porzingis	58	59	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	0.03	-32	22	-54	16.3	12.1	4.21	14.4	17.5	-3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.1,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, PHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.06,0,0	93.5%
TOR 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	93.5%
LAL 100, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.35,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	93.5%