NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	79		Excitement	4.7 [849]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +10.7%
Boston Celtics	88		Comeback	1.6 [770]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -11.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	58%	0.11	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	56%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	13	47%	0.02	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	12	37%	-0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	0.04	16	50%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	17	65%	0.17	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	3	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	45%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Tony Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.04	9	61%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	39%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	18	52%	0.08	5	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.7	39.0	17.8	30.3	4.5	30.4	149.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +31.5%

DET -1.2%

BOS +2.1%

BOS +12.8%

BOS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	17.5	16.6	15.4	94.0	103.5	105.7
season	16.8	15.6		108.8	108.0
opponent	15.9	15.8		98.3	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.9	18.2	15.3	17.1	17.5
BOS	15.3	17.8	15.3	18.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	20	23	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.10	8	-17	25	18.0	17.4	0.61	18.8	15.7	3.06
Theo Ratliff	6	6	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.00	4	-13	17	16.2	17.6	-1.47	19.8	16.3	3.53
Rodney Stuckey	40	40	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-14	19	17.5	17.6	-0.12	16.8	16.3	0.56
Jason Maxiell	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-8	7	15.5	18.8	-3.33	15.7	17.1	-1.41
Rasheed Wallace	62	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-3	-3	18.9	13.7	5.16	17.4	14.0	3.39
Tayshaun Prince	75	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	-1	-7	17.4	18.3	-0.89	16.4	17.3	-0.83
Chauncey Billups	54	54	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.03	-18	9	-27	18.1	16.5	1.56	16.1	17.3	-1.11
Richard Hamilton	63	65	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	5	-19	17.1	19.0	-1.89	16.1	17.9	-1.76
Antonio McDyess	67	65	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.20	-15	6	-21	17.4	18.1	-0.66	15.8	19.1	-3.33

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	76	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-5	19	17.0	13.0	3.97	17.8	15.6	2.22
Ray Allen	68	67	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.12	14	-5	19	16.4	17.0	-0.56	17.4	18.1	-0.66
Kendrick Perkins	56	55	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-3	15	16.6	16.4	0.26	17.9	16.9	0.98
Rajon Rondo	71	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	1	7	16.5	16.9	-0.36	18.1	15.2	2.90
Kevin Garnett	65	63	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	1	7	16.6	16.3	0.27	18.7	14.1	4.59
P.J. Brown	33	34	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.14	-1	10	-11	16.1	16.8	-0.71	16.1	18.5	-2.48
Leon Powe	15	16	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.07	-1	10	-11	16.5	16.6	-0.10	15.0	18.1	-3.13
Eddie House	15	16	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	8	-7	17.3	16.4	0.87	15.2	18.1	-2.90
Tony Allen	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	11	-13	0.0	16.7	-16.75	25.0	17.4	7.55
James Posey	25	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.15	-8	17	-25	16.2	16.7	-0.44	16.9	17.8	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, CHH 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.89,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
NJN 80, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.78,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
NJN 101, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	94.5%