NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	97		Excitement	7.2 [369]		MVP	Aaron Williams (NJN): +12.1%
New Jersey Nets	109		Comeback	1.0 [1088]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): -27.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Bob Sura	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	2	67%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	19	50%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Earl Boykins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	6	23%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	21	56%	0.02	5	-0.12	8	87%	0.05
Gilbert Arenas	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.14	-0.16	-0.02	17	45%	-0.14	5	-0.13	8	100%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.01	9	67%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	0.00	19	56%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	4	100%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.04	7	29%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.03	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	14	34%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	13	61%	0.03	5	-0.16	10	60%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	26.1	14.8	29.9	2.4	28.5	125.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +67.4%

GSW -32.2%

GSW -5.3%

NJN +20.3%

GSW -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	NJN	NBA	GSW	NJN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	15.5	99.0	111.2	101.6
season	14.6	15.0		105.3	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.1		96.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	14.0	14.5	16.4	14.6
NJN	12.8	16.7	14.3	15.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	27	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-11	10	12.6	15.4	-2.75	16.1	14.3	1.76
Troy Murphy	67	66	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	-5	-2	13.6	16.7	-3.10	14.0	16.2	-2.20
Mike Dunleavy	24	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-5	-2	13.7	14.9	-1.21	15.0	14.7	0.25
Earl Boykins	24	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-7	2	15.6	14.3	1.27	16.6	14.2	2.41
Jason Richardson	80	80	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-7	2	13.9	18.0	-4.14	14.2	17.2	-2.94
Antawn Jamison	78	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	-5	-2	15.5	11.3	4.17	14.8	14.7	0.12
Bob Sura	46	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.13	-9	-3	-6	15.1	14.2	0.92	16.2	13.5	2.70
Gilbert Arenas	78	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	14.6	14.5	0.09	14.6	15.6	-1.04
Erick Dampier	66	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-3	-6	16.0	11.8	4.13	14.2	16.1	-1.92

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Rogers	56	55	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.19	11	1	10	15.4	13.9	1.51	13.9	15.5	-1.63
Jason Kidd	87	87	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	0	12	14.6	16.4	-1.80	14.4	16.1	-1.65
Jason Collins	46	47	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	-4	20	13.5	15.9	-2.34	15.2	14.1	1.13
Kenyon Martin	49	49	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	0	12	13.8	15.8	-1.98	15.0	14.3	0.71
Kerry Kittles	75	74	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	6	0	14.8	14.5	0.32	14.9	13.6	1.32
Richard Jefferson	80	80	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	8	-4	14.6	15.7	-1.10	14.5	15.2	-0.67
Lucious Harris	42	43	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	9	-6	15.9	13.9	1.91	15.2	14.1	1.09
Aaron Williams	42	41	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	10	-8	15.0	14.6	0.33	14.5	14.7	-0.19
Brian Scalabrine	3	4	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	12	-12	13.0	14.8	-1.82	14.0	14.6	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.7,0.6,0.69,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 81, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.84,0.94,0.95,1	93.6%
ATL 83, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.75,0.6,0.8,0.96,0.96,0.96,1	93.5%
NYK 88, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.94,1,1	93.3%