NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	7.2 [210]		MVP	Dee Brown (TOR): +20.6%
Orlando Magic	88		Comeback	1.7 [148]		LVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): -18.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.21	0.08	0.11	-0.02	10	75%	0.26	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.12	-0.04	0.15	-0.01	23	49%	0.20	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	11	65%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Michael Stewart	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.14	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Charles Oakley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
John Wallace	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	7	18%	-0.11	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	8	70%	0.16	4	-0.09	7	57%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	11	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	12	48%	-0.06	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.04
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	0.03	11	59%	0.06	5	-0.16	5	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	5	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	8	35%	-0.08	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.06	-0.02	10	32%	-0.09	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	30.0	17.5	29.5	2.3	43.5	147.7
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +54.5%

ORL -11.0%

TOR +6.4%

TOR +5.2%

ORL -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.4	15.8	102.2	95.7	99.6
season	15.6	16.1		99.0	98.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		95.7	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	16.6	17.0	14.4	15.7
ORL	18.5	16.9	13.8	13.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	64	66	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	0	7	16.5	13.9	2.68	15.5	15.3	0.16
John Wallace	42	41	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	2	3	15.1	16.2	-1.08	16.4	14.6	1.83
Dee Brown	59	58	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	0	7	14.8	17.2	-2.40	14.9	16.2	-1.29
Vince Carter	73	70	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	5	-3	16.1	14.2	1.92	14.4	18.5	-4.10
Michael Stewart	32	29	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	-2	11	13.7	16.7	-2.99	17.3	14.6	2.70
Tracy McGrady	57	58	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	4	-1	15.9	15.3	0.61	15.6	15.1	0.49
Kevin Willis	49	51	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.25	-4	11	-15	17.7	13.5	4.15	16.3	14.3	1.95
Alvin Williams	29	28	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.12	8	-1	9	12.4	17.2	-4.74	14.5	15.8	-1.33
Charles Oakley	60	59	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	9	-11	16.4	14.5	1.90	14.9	16.4	-1.47

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Schayes	1	1	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-4	1	0.0	15.6	-15.59	20.0	15.7	4.34
Nick Anderson	60	61	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-9	11	13.6	18.8	-5.15	16.1	14.9	1.22
Derek Strong	9	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-3	-1	19.9	14.9	4.95	12.1	16.1	-4.04
Michael Doleac	45	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.26	5	-12	17	14.5	16.3	-1.83	15.6	15.8	-0.16
Ike Austin	41	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-3	-1	17.9	13.4	4.52	16.9	14.7	2.18
Horace Grant	61	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-8	9	15.8	14.7	1.08	16.8	13.5	3.29
Matt Harpring	32	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	0	-7	15.7	15.3	0.45	14.6	16.2	-1.59
Darrell Armstrong	63	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-1	-5	14.9	16.6	-1.65	14.3	19.0	-4.66
Bo Outlaw	80	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	2	-11	15.3	16.2	-0.85	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Anfernee Hardaway	68	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	3	-13	15.9	14.1	1.81	16.0	14.9	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.09,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, ATL 80	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.26,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.2%
DAL 91, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.23,0.09,0	93.0%
PHX 88, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	93.0%