NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	120		Excitement	9.0 [175]		MVP	Bogdan Bogdanovic (SAC): +30.2%
San Antonio Spurs	129		Comeback	1.9 [402]		LVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): -26.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.30	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.13	-0.00	15	75%	0.38	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
DaQuan Jeffries	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
De'Aaron Fox	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.05,0.06,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.03	33	55%	0.11	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.02	8	71%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	47%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Harry Giles III	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	5	83%	0.07	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.09	0.01	5	71%	0.08	2	-0.15	4	100%	0.03
Buddy Hield	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.08,-0.14,-0.19,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.27	-0.17	-0.12	-0.03	13	21%	-0.16	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.29	0.29	0.11	0.21	0.03	13	77%	0.42	4	-0.12	9	78%	-0.03
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.06	-0.02	15	63%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.09	0.00	12	64%	0.22	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.07	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Quinndary Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.08	-0.10	0.06	15	72%	0.08	5	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Dejounte Murray	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	11	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.7	26.1	14.4	29.4	3.3	37.7	143.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.3%

SAC -9.6%

SAC -8.8%

SAS +28.0%

SAC -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	12.4	14.2	14.2	110.1	119.4	109.6
season	14.3	14.1		109.0	110.8
opponent	14.2	14.5		112.0	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.0	10.7	14.1	10.7	12.4
SAS	13.7	17.2	11.6	14.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DaQuan Jeffries	19	18	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.04	6	-15	21	9.9	12.9	-2.92	13.4	14.4	-0.97
Cory Joseph	61	59	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.12	8	-17	25	11.2	13.8	-2.52	15.6	12.5	3.05
Kent Bazemore	55	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-6	3	11.9	12.9	-1.02	13.5	14.9	-1.31
Bogdan Bogdanovic	69	68	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.17	2	-11	13	12.8	11.6	1.16	14.9	12.9	2.02
Harry Giles III	9	9	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	1	-11	13.7	12.2	1.43	13.8	14.2	-0.45
Nemanja Bjelica	66	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-5	1	13.0	11.3	1.70	13.9	14.7	-0.88
Buddy Hield	49	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	4	-17	11.8	12.8	-1.02	12.6	15.4	-2.79
Richaun Holmes	54	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-6	3	12.3	12.4	-0.05	14.1	14.3	-0.13
Harrison Barnes	80	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	7	-23	12.9	10.7	2.23	14.4	13.7	0.69
De'Aaron Fox	83	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.21	-12	3	-15	12.8	10.9	1.88	14.3	13.9	0.36

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	77	75	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.07	19	-10	29	14.1	14.3	-0.18	12.8	11.4	1.33
Lonnie Walker IV	75	76	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-1	11	13.8	15.1	-1.29	12.1	12.9	-0.83
DeMar DeRozan	83	85	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	2	5	14.3	14.0	0.31	12.7	11.1	1.63
Jakob Poeltl	72	73	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	2	5	14.2	14.2	-0.04	12.5	12.0	0.53
Rudy Gay	59	58	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	6	-3	14.1	14.4	-0.32	11.7	13.1	-1.39
Keldon Johnson	68	67	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.10	7	2	5	14.4	13.8	0.67	12.2	12.6	-0.46
Drew Eubanks	4	4	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	6	-3	18.2	14.0	4.21	14.0	12.3	1.70
Quinndary Weatherspoon	25	23	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	9	-9	12.7	14.7	-1.97	12.9	12.2	0.70
Marco Belinelli	31	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	11	-13	15.5	13.6	1.90	11.7	12.7	-0.99
Dejounte Murray	46	50	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	18	-27	14.2	14.2	0.00	12.3	12.4	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.75,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.75,0.68,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.91,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	91.3%
NJN 92, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.81,0.79,0.96,0.99,1	91.0%
UTA 97, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.51,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.54,0.68,0.9,1	90.7%