NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	120		Excitement	8.8 [201]		MVP	JJ Redick (PHI): +42.2%
Philadelphia 76ers	122		Comeback	69.4 [35]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -8.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.09	-0.01	11	68%	0.23	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Patty Mills	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	10	74%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.07	0.10	-0.03	-0.01	9	80%	0.28	2	-0.20	2	100%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.01	9	78%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	9	75%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.12,-0.08	0.02	-0.09	0.02	19	63%	0.09	6	-0.18	3	67%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.11	0.32	-0.00	16	58%	0.42	0	0.00	1	100%	0.04
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.15	0.00	7	93%	0.30	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joel Embiid	0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	28	53%	0.18	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Simmons	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	14	66%	0.14	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonah Bolden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	6	58%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	7	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	3.3	28.5	15.4	24.2	3.4	31.4	129.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +2.7%

PHI +12.4%

PHI +21.4%

PHI +4.9%

PHI +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHI	NBA	SAS	PHI	NBA
this game	13.8	15.4	14.3	121.2	124.5	109.3
season	14.8	14.0		111.7	110.9
opponent	14.1	14.4		108.1	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.7	12.8	15.1	14.7	13.8
PHI	16.1	14.9	14.2	16.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryn Forbes	65	67	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.03	10	-12	22	13.5	14.5	-1.04	16.0	14.3	1.71
Patty Mills	50	48	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-4	6	12.9	14.8	-1.90	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Dante Cunningham	23	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-4	6	12.7	14.1	-1.41	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Jakob Poeltl	27	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	0	-2	13.9	13.8	0.10	14.6	15.7	-1.10
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-2	2	13.8	13.9	-0.10	16.0	14.2	1.78
Rudy Gay	59	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	3	-8	15.2	11.7	3.47	16.3	14.1	2.21
DeMar DeRozan	77	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.46	-2	0	-2	14.1	12.9	1.17	14.8	17.7	-2.91
Marco Belinelli	47	46	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.53	-4	2	-6	13.3	14.2	-0.91	15.7	15.2	0.59
Derrick White	75	74	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.34	-11	9	-20	14.0	13.2	0.81	14.6	17.8	-3.18

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Embiid	76	77	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.50	12	-10	22	15.1	16.5	-1.32	13.5	15.0	-1.52
Ben Simmons	73	75	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.55	2	0	2	14.6	17.7	-3.08	14.1	12.8	1.36
Wilson Chandler	71	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.49	-1	3	-4	16.1	13.8	2.28	14.7	11.4	3.31
JJ Redick	74	76	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	-1	4	15.5	15.3	0.13	13.7	14.0	-0.29
Corey Brewer	61	62	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	0	2	14.5	16.9	-2.44	12.8	15.5	-2.71
Landry Shamet	44	42	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	0	2	15.3	15.5	-0.16	14.8	13.1	1.64
Mike Muscala	27	27	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	-4	10	15.1	15.5	-0.39	11.7	14.6	-2.86
T.J. McConnell	42	42	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.09	-6	8	-14	17.3	14.0	3.25	13.7	13.9	-0.22
Jonah Bolden	22	22	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	-0.06	-10	12	-22	16.5	15.1	1.32	15.0	13.5	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.73,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.32,0.1,0.04,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 70, MIN 74	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	91.7%
OKC 101, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.42,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.2,0.06,0.25,0.21,0.43,0.58,1	90.3%
SAC 117, IND 122	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.27,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.58,1	90.1%