NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	8.8 [149]		MVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): +28.9%
Dallas Mavericks	90		Comeback	5.3 [140]		LVP	Darren Collison (DAL): -38.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.29,0.29	0.05	0.22	-0.01	17	56%	0.40	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.06
JJ Redick	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.01	8	70%	0.15	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	9	65%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Sanders	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	12	46%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.03
Drew Gooden	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	11	33%	-0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.00	5	83%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.11	0.01	8	67%	0.20	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Bernard James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.28,0.2,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.12	0.00	16	58%	0.18	3	-0.25	4	100%	0.03
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.09	-0.03	14	56%	0.02	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.10	-0.01	8	11%	-0.15	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.38	-0.38	-0.10	-0.30	-0.01	15	36%	-0.23	3	-0.16	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	29.4	16.4	23.3	2.5	32.6	131.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +48.4%

MIL +14.3%

DAL -57.3%

MIL +45.0%

DAL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DAL	NBA	MIL	DAL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	15.4	96.0	90.9	104.1
season	14.7	14.5		101.6	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.3		105.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.8	16.1	16.1	12.7	14.9
DAL	12.8	13.9	13.9	16.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Sanders	56	56	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.49	8	-3	11	14.3	15.7	-1.35	13.8	14.7	-0.83
JJ Redick	47	45	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.48	7	-2	9	14.2	15.5	-1.33	15.3	13.2	2.07
Ersan Ilyasova	62	62	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	0	5	14.1	16.2	-2.09	14.0	14.4	-0.36
Mike Dunleavy	58	59	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-7	19	14.4	15.6	-1.20	14.9	13.1	1.73
Monta Ellis	92	92	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.38	2	3	-1	14.9	14.9	0.06	14.1	15.9	-1.80
Ekpe Udoh	17	17	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	-4	13	14.6	15.0	-0.32	16.5	13.7	2.76
John Henson	7	6	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	1	3	16.1	14.8	1.33	15.0	14.1	0.87
Luc Mbah a Moute	58	59	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	16	-27	15.7	13.8	1.97	13.5	15.2	-1.75
Drew Gooden	31	32	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.11	-6	11	-17	16.3	14.3	2.06	14.2	14.1	0.10
Brandon Jennings	67	67	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.14	-5	10	-15	15.6	13.4	2.17	13.3	15.9	-2.59

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	21	22	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.03	7	-12	19	14.5	14.1	0.37	16.6	14.4	2.22
Brandan Wright	23	24	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.01	4	-9	13	11.9	14.9	-2.96	16.0	14.6	1.44
Shawn Marion	65	66	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.20	9	-14	23	13.2	16.0	-2.77	15.2	14.3	0.91
Bernard James	25	25	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-7	9	13.1	14.6	-1.47	15.3	14.8	0.55
Mike James	20	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.10	-7	2	-9	17.7	13.3	4.41	14.8	14.9	-0.13
Anthony Morrow	8	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	0	-5	15.5	14.1	1.43	13.5	15.0	-1.53
Darren Collison	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-7	9	13.3	17.7	-4.41	14.9	14.9	0.01
O.J. Mayo	80	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.43	-2	-3	1	13.8	15.9	-2.12	14.9	14.8	0.13
Dirk Nowitzki	73	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	3	-11	14.9	12.1	2.85	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Elton Brand	50	49	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.30	-11	6	-17	15.9	12.4	3.43	14.4	15.4	-1.03
Vince Carter	51	51	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.20	-16	11	-27	14.5	13.8	0.72	14.2	15.7	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.47,0.68,0.72,0.57,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, MEM 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.53,0.86,0.79,0.45,0.17,0	90.2%
MIA 97, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.27,0	90.1%
DEN 93, SAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.16,0	89.7%