NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	8.6 [152]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +31.3%
Washington Wizards	95		Comeback	3.8 [277]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (WAS): -15.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0.15,0.31	0.05	0.26	0.00	9	67%	0.40	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1	-0.03	0.12	-0.00	11	44%	0.10	0	0.00	5	80%	0.08
Kendall Gill	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.03	7	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.08,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	22	52%	0.12	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.04
Rod Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.01	16	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	4	60%	0.08	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.09,0.18,0.07,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.23	0.00	25	60%	0.36	4	-0.12	12	83%	0.03
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.14	-0.00	9	72%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.00	4	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	6	33%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	4	22%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	18	49%	-0.11	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	26.3	15.6	25.2	2.0	34.0	131.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +14.6%

MIA +26.2%

MIA +3.5%

MIA +4.9%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	17.3	15.6	111.5	108.0	102.3
season	16.5	16.5		96.6	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.8		103.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	13.3	14.1	18.7	15.6
WAS	16.8	17.2	17.8	17.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	62	62	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.54	4	-2	6	15.9	15.0	0.87	18.1	15.4	2.64
Alonzo Mourning	58	60	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.57	0	2	-2	16.2	14.5	1.71	16.9	18.1	-1.15
Rod Strickland	67	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	-2	6	15.7	15.4	0.29	17.6	16.1	1.50
Eddie Jones	72	74	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.43	2	0	2	15.5	16.3	-0.78	17.2	17.6	-0.34
Jim Jackson	61	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	-3	8	15.9	15.0	0.94	17.1	17.6	-0.45
Vladimir Stepania	21	21	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.11	4	-2	6	15.9	15.5	0.37	17.5	17.2	0.25
Kendall Gill	34	35	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	7	-12	14.7	16.2	-1.45	17.1	17.4	-0.33
LaPhonso Ellis	39	39	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.08	0	2	-2	14.7	16.3	-1.59	17.0	17.5	-0.51
Anthony Carter	21	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	6	-10	15.5	15.7	-0.13	16.1	17.6	-1.50

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Whitney	49	48	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.07	5	-7	12	17.7	16.7	1.02	14.9	16.5	-1.62
Jahidi White	45	44	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.05	7	-9	16	17.5	17.0	0.46	14.8	16.4	-1.62
Christian Laettner	38	40	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.06	-2	0	-2	17.5	17.1	0.38	16.2	15.1	1.16
Hubert Davis	6	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	20.0	17.1	2.91	13.3	15.8	-2.54
Tyrone Nesby	30	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	4	-10	16.9	17.5	-0.53	15.3	15.8	-0.44
Richard Hamilton	73	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.46	6	-8	14	16.7	20.3	-3.68	15.9	14.6	1.28
Popeye Jones	58	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	2	-6	17.7	16.6	1.09	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Michael Jordan	68	68	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.52	-2	0	-2	17.6	16.1	1.53	15.8	15.1	0.66
Tyronn Lue	39	40	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.48	-5	3	-8	16.7	17.7	-1.02	16.5	14.8	1.72
Brendan Haywood	34	33	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.47	-7	5	-12	16.6	17.7	-1.13	16.6	15.0	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 93, SAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.16,0	92.4%
NOH 106, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.34,0.17,0	92.1%
IND 95, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.79,0.68,0.26,0	92.0%