NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	8.6 [185]		MVP	Wesley Person (DEN): +4.3%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	3.0 [213]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -36.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Carmelo Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	14	47%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.2,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	-0.05	4	-0.10	9	67%	-0.04
Kenyon Martin	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	14	37%	-0.07	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	0.05	-0.28	0.04	24	55%	-0.21	1	-0.07	8	87%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.04	8	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	1	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	9	75%	0.09	3	-0.18	2	50%	-0.05
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.20	0.00	15	59%	-0.07	3	-0.14	9	89%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.15	-0.02	22	37%	-0.19	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.37,-0.37	-0.37	-0.16	-0.22	-0.01	17	35%	-0.23	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	524.1	2.8	36.8	0.3	29.6	2.7	39.0	635.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +22.8%

DEN +9.6%

SAS -7.4%

DEN +25.5%

SAS -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.9	15.5	98.9	90.6	104.0
season	14.8	16.3		103.8	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	13.7	15.0	16.3	14.4
SAS	16.0	14.5	18.5	15.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	73	75	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-4	14	14.5	14.0	0.45	15.6	16.9	-1.22
Marcus Camby	78	80	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.29	11	-5	16	14.4	14.6	-0.20	16.2	14.6	1.61
Carmelo Anthony	58	60	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.30	3	3	0	14.2	14.8	-0.62	17.2	13.7	3.54
Greg Buckner	41	41	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	3	0	14.5	14.3	0.17	14.0	17.3	-3.28
Kenyon Martin	76	78	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.35	-3	9	-12	14.1	15.7	-1.64	15.6	17.4	-1.82
Nene	34	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	2	2	15.2	13.9	1.23	16.1	15.8	0.24
Earl Boykins	48	49	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	7	-8	15.8	12.9	2.94	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Wesley Person	28	29	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.10	5	1	4	13.4	14.8	-1.37	16.9	15.5	1.37
DerMarr Johnson	34	34	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	8	-10	13.2	15.0	-1.81	15.9	15.9	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	8	8	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-7	8	14.5	16.0	-1.53	11.6	14.7	-3.03
Glenn Robinson	10	11	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-6	6	18.0	15.7	2.34	20.2	13.6	6.56
Robert Horry	46	46	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-7	8	15.2	16.5	-1.32	14.2	14.5	-0.30
Brent Barry	38	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-3	0	17.2	15.0	2.20	12.9	15.3	-2.40
Beno Udrih	20	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-2	-2	14.6	16.2	-1.65	13.4	14.7	-1.26
Tim Duncan	67	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-3	0	16.4	14.7	1.79	15.0	13.0	2.02
Tony Parker	76	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-4	2	16.2	14.6	1.65	14.7	13.4	1.26
Bruce Bowen	70	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	1	-8	16.0	15.7	0.35	13.8	15.8	-1.94
Manu Ginobili	74	75	-0.52	0.01	-0.53	-0.46	-2	-4	2	14.9	19.5	-4.60	14.7	13.0	1.75
Nazr Mohammed	71	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	5	-16	16.0	15.6	0.36	14.2	14.8	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.27,0	92.4%
SAC 96, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.55,0.26,0	92.2%
GSW 109, MIN 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.7,0.72,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.49,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.09,0	91.3%