NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	4.0 [1014]		MVP	Grant Hill (ORL): +10.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	79		Comeback	1.1 [505]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -8.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.02	0.02	12	67%	0.13	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	112%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	7	64%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	64%	0.10	5	-0.08	8	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.04	11	46%	0.09	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.02	12	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	11	64%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	11	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	45%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	15	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	13	46%	-0.05
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.07	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	5	30%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	30.1	15.7	30.2	2.7	30.2	138.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.3%

ORL +0.5%

ORL +4.3%

CLE -6.8%

ORL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	17.2	16.1	15.4	104.7	90.8	104.5
season	15.9	16.0		103.4	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.6	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.8	17.8	15.4	21.8	17.2
CLE	14.6	18.2	15.9	16.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	36	38	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.08	20	-9	29	17.9	16.7	1.19	16.3	16.0	0.33
Keyon Dooling	39	39	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	2	7	18.7	16.0	2.73	14.7	17.3	-2.60
Jameer Nelson	63	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	5	1	16.0	20.4	-4.36	15.4	18.2	-2.84
Dwight Howard	65	65	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.21	2	9	-7	15.5	22.4	-6.86	16.0	16.5	-0.59
Keith Bogans	27	28	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	4	3	19.1	16.3	2.79	14.6	16.8	-2.26
Hedo Turkoglu	59	58	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.15	3	8	-5	17.2	17.3	-0.09	16.9	14.4	2.53
Grant Hill	61	62	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	11	-11	16.3	19.4	-3.10	16.8	14.3	2.56
Travis Diener	23	22	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	6	-1	20.4	16.0	4.36	18.2	15.4	2.84
Bo Outlaw	15	14	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	7	-3	18.5	16.9	1.54	19.0	15.5	3.45
Tony Battie	42	44	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.13	-1	12	-13	17.5	16.9	0.54	15.3	16.9	-1.54

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	2	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-9	7	19.5	16.0	3.48	23.0	17.1	5.87
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	37	38	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-8	5	17.4	15.1	2.31	17.3	17.1	0.21
Drew Gooden	56	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-13	15	16.9	14.7	2.22	17.0	17.6	-0.57
Daniel Gibson	7	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-3	-5	14.3	16.3	-1.98	15.9	17.3	-1.46
Eric Snow	42	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-7	3	18.3	14.1	4.22	18.6	16.0	2.67
Sasha Pavlovic	15	14	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.08	-11	0	-11	15.0	16.3	-1.33	16.9	17.2	-0.32
Donyell Marshall	28	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-4	-3	13.0	17.6	-4.63	16.3	17.6	-1.26
LeBron James	76	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-9	7	16.4	14.2	2.20	17.8	12.4	5.31
Damon Jones	50	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-7	3	15.0	17.6	-2.64	17.3	17.0	0.34
Larry Hughes	76	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-7	3	15.8	18.1	-2.28	16.3	24.3	-8.04
Anderson Varejao	46	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	1	-13	15.7	16.5	-0.82	17.2	17.2	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 109, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
MIN 93, WAS 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
LAC 105, SAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%