NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	5.5 [735]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +13.8%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.0 [996]		LVP	P.J. Tucker (MIA): -7.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.03	-0.03	21	55%	0.19	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Marcus Smart	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.02	-0.02	-0.05	22	48%	0.09	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	15	63%	0.14	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Grant Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	58%	0.05	2	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Payton Pritchard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	8	50%	0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.03	0.01	21	56%	0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03	0.03	0.15	-0.09	0.03	24	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.01	12	45%	0.03	2	-0.03	9	67%	0.01
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	10	40%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	12	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.0	36.0	15.5	31.6	1.8	35.5	148.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +34.2%

BOS +2.5%

BOS +19.4%

MIA -6.8%

BOS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.4	14.5	102.0	99.0	110.8
season	14.9	14.9		112.2	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.7		107.6	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.1	14.0	15.6	17.1	15.1
MIA	14.7	13.2	16.4	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	71	70	0.45	-0.12	0.57	0.07	13	-6	19	14.5	15.9	-1.38	14.7	13.2	1.49
Jayson Tatum	75	73	0.35	-0.02	0.37	0.06	10	-3	13	14.8	12.8	1.99	14.6	13.7	0.95
Jaylen Brown	70	70	0.31	0.02	0.29	-0.01	11	-4	15	14.5	15.6	-1.07	15.0	10.7	4.38
Marcus Smart	66	63	0.27	0.06	0.22	0.13	5	2	3	14.3	16.3	-1.97	14.8	13.4	1.39
Grant Williams	41	41	0.19	0.14	0.06	0.14	2	5	-3	15.3	13.9	1.39	14.0	15.1	-1.08
Robert Williams III	31	31	0.13	0.20	-0.08	-0.02	5	2	3	14.6	14.7	-0.03	15.8	13.7	2.08
Payton Pritchard	5	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	7	-10	12.8	15.3	-2.47	13.7	14.4	-0.77
Derrick White	41	41	-0.03	0.36	-0.40	0.20	-8	15	-23	15.0	14.3	0.79	12.5	16.7	-4.17

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	51	51	0.06	-0.43	0.49	-0.26	11	-20	31	13.6	17.0	-3.42	15.3	12.9	2.32
Tyler Herro	14	14	-0.04	-0.34	0.30	-0.04	0	-9	9	14.0	15.1	-1.09	14.5	14.4	0.15
Max Strus	54	55	-0.22	-0.16	-0.06	-0.19	-1	-8	7	15.0	14.7	0.34	14.6	13.9	0.78
Kyle Lowry	63	62	-0.24	-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-7	-2	-5	15.1	14.1	1.04	14.3	14.6	-0.36
Gabe Vincent	33	33	-0.27	-0.10	-0.18	0.02	-10	1	-11	14.6	15.1	-0.45	14.1	14.6	-0.53
Jimmy Butler	82	82	-0.37	0.00	-0.37	-0.11	-9	0	-9	14.9	0.0	14.90	14.4	0.0	14.38
Bam Adebayo	78	78	-0.38	0.01	-0.39	0.00	-13	4	-17	15.2	8.5	6.73	14.4	14.0	0.40
P.J. Tucker	35	35	-0.40	0.03	-0.43	0.07	-16	7	-23	16.1	14.0	2.01	13.1	15.4	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.33,0.34,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 92, WAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
CLE 89, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	94.0%
MIN 100, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,0	93.7%