NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	116		Excitement	1.8 [473]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (CLE): +27.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	122		Comeback	4.1 [429]		LVP	Jalen Johnson (ATL): -16.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	3	111%	0.12	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Onyeka Okongwu	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	10	75%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.01	20	59%	0.13	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Dyson Daniels	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	-0.01	-0.04	11	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Corey Kispert	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mouhamed Gueye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05	0.07	-0.08	0.05	19	64%	0.15	4	-0.21	1	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	16	37%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	16	33%	-0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.08	-0.03	19	70%	0.30	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.06
James Harden	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,0,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.05	0.11	-0.03	23	41%	0.17	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.07
Dean Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	4	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Merrill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Mobley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.00	15	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.03
Jarrett Allen	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.07	3	-0.08	11	73%	-0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schr�der	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	56%	-0.00	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	0.2	27.9	0.5	36.9	0.1	38.5	133.4
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -7.1%

CLE +40.6%

ATL -3.2%

CLE +18.5%

CLE +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CLE	NBA	ATL	CLE	NBA
this game	12.8	14.6	14.2	110.5	116.2	113.4
season	13.4	13.9		113.4	115.7
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.8	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.0	12.2	12.8	12.2	12.8
CLE	14.6	14.0	15.5	14.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	88	89	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.33	8	-14	22	12.8	12.8	0.03	14.3	16.1	-1.73
Onyeka Okongwu	93	93	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-4	2	13.2	9.8	3.34	14.7	13.9	0.77
Jalen Johnson	87	88	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-7	8	13.0	11.6	1.49	14.6	14.5	0.15
Mouhamed Gueye	91	93	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.47	6	-12	18	13.3	9.2	4.13	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Dyson Daniels	95	97	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-8	10	13.0	10.8	2.20	14.7	13.1	1.60
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	105	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	12.8	0.0	12.79	14.6	0.0	14.60
Gabe Vincent	66	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	12	-30	13.3	11.9	1.46	15.0	13.9	1.12
Jonathan Kuminga	95	96	-0.59	0.10	-0.69	-0.33	-9	3	-12	13.1	10.0	3.08	14.7	13.8	0.90
Corey Kispert	53	52	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.08	-18	12	-30	14.2	11.3	2.94	15.2	14.0	1.17

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Ellis	74	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.14	18	-12	30	14.7	14.4	0.35	13.6	10.8	2.79
Sam Merrill	97	96	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.36	9	-3	12	14.7	13.9	0.78	13.2	8.7	4.51
Evan Mobley	105	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.6	0.0	14.60	12.8	0.0	12.79
Donovan Mitchell	104	105	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.32	6	0	6	14.6	19.0	-4.44	12.8	0.0	12.79
James Harden	91	90	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	7	-8	14.5	15.1	-0.63	12.8	12.7	0.14
Dean Wade	84	82	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.39	-5	11	-16	14.3	15.8	-1.45	13.3	10.9	2.46
Jarrett Allen	86	84	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.36	-5	11	-16	14.4	15.5	-1.07	12.7	13.2	-0.56
Max Strus	92	94	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	3	0	14.7	14.0	0.68	13.0	10.7	2.30
Dennis Schr�der	33	32	-0.46	0.96	-1.43	0.18	-22	28	-50	14.4	14.7	-0.34	13.4	12.5	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.88,0.67,0.69,0.89,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 108, TOR 119	0.5,0.5,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.99,1	91.7%
IND 123, WAS 133	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.98,1	91.5%
BOS 85, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.94,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.95,0.99,1	91.4%