NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	85		Excitement	1.7 [488]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +22.6%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	2.2 [634]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -17.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08	-0.01	0.06	-0.03	16	55%	0.17	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.05
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Giddens	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	16	44%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Kendrick Perkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	0.03	-0.04	0.05	10	62%	0.03	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	15	37%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.12	-0.01	10	77%	0.27	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.01	10	73%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	12	67%	0.14	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	12	54%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	16	37%	-0.04	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.7	32.1	18.7	27.7	3.8	36.2	148.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +47.7%

BOS -2.7%

ATL +4.2%

BOS -1.5%

ATL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.9	15.3	97.7	106.9	106.0
season	15.5	16.0		105.7	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.7		106.0	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.7	17.0	19.0	17.1	17.2
ATL	16.3	15.0	13.7	18.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	8	9	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-10	12	16.9	17.2	-0.37	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Shelden Williams	12	12	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-8	8	17.6	17.1	0.44	14.4	16.1	-1.72
J.R. Giddens	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-8	8	0.0	17.4	-17.41	17.0	15.9	1.12
Glen Davis	26	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-8	8	16.4	17.6	-1.17	14.0	16.6	-2.68
Eddie House	29	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-11	14	18.4	16.6	1.76	15.9	15.9	-0.06
Paul Pierce	75	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	0	-8	16.6	20.7	-4.11	16.0	15.2	0.87
Kendrick Perkins	68	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	-1	-6	17.0	18.0	-1.01	16.1	15.1	0.99
Ray Allen	72	71	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	3	-14	17.7	14.9	2.75	16.4	13.8	2.55
Rasheed Wallace	68	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	1	-10	17.7	15.5	2.15	16.6	13.1	3.51
Rajon Rondo	76	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.26	-10	2	-12	17.1	17.7	-0.60	15.5	19.7	-4.21

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	50	52	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.08	15	-7	22	16.7	14.8	1.89	17.5	16.8	0.73
Josh Smith	74	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.29	7	1	6	16.3	13.7	2.59	17.7	14.2	3.59
Al Horford	69	70	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-1	10	16.1	15.3	0.78	17.3	16.8	0.48
Joe Johnson	72	73	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	-1	10	16.0	15.2	0.84	17.1	18.0	-0.95
Marvin Williams	63	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	1	6	15.6	16.7	-1.06	17.9	15.6	2.31
Jamal Crawford	46	45	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	11	-14	16.0	15.8	0.13	16.3	18.2	-1.86
Maurice Evans	23	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	8	-8	14.8	16.3	-1.51	16.6	17.4	-0.81
Joe Smith	12	12	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	7	-6	13.4	16.3	-2.88	15.3	17.5	-2.17
Zaza Pachulia	18	17	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	9	-10	15.3	16.1	-0.78	16.8	17.3	-0.48
Jeff Teague	8	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	12	-16	14.9	16.0	-1.13	16.0	17.3	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.94,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 81, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.72,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.98,1	93.1%
LAC 78, VAN 86	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.34,0.45,0.54,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	92.8%
PHX 92, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,1	92.6%