NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	108		Excitement	1.6 [620]		MVP	Jakob Poeltl (TOR): +19.8%
Toronto Raptors	119		Comeback	1.9 [428]		LVP	Immanuel Quickley (TOR): -14.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.01	0.03	12	87%	0.17	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	11	69%	0.12	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02
Javonte Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	3	89%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Cade Cunningham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.02	24	59%	0.12	4	-0.11	8	87%	-0.01
Caris LeVert	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Holland II	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Huerter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Sasser	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	8	22%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.04	-0.01	12	72%	0.20	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	17	71%	0.23	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Ingram	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.01	25	59%	0.16	3	-0.04	8	75%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Mogbo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	11	52%	0.03	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	12	21%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	0.1	32.9	14.4	27.2	0.6	30.6	137.0
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +8.3%

TOR +15.6%

TOR +24.4%

TOR +1.0%

TOR +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	13.5	16.3	14.2	112.5	122.7	113.4
season	14.2	13.9		114.8	113.5
opponent	14.8	14.4		110.9	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.9	12.8	16.5	12.0	13.5
TOR	15.1	16.5	14.8	18.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Javonte Green	48	47	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.18	7	-18	25	12.4	14.6	-2.21	17.7	14.9	2.86
Marcus Sasser	22	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-13	15	14.3	13.3	1.03	17.2	16.0	1.24
Duncan Robinson	68	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-14	17	14.0	12.4	1.64	17.7	12.5	5.20
Tobias Harris	78	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-8	5	13.5	13.6	-0.11	16.9	13.6	3.28
Ausar Thompson	68	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	13.7	13.0	0.74	16.6	15.4	1.23
Jalen Duren	85	86	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-3	-5	13.5	13.8	-0.34	16.3	16.0	0.30
Caris LeVert	81	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	0	-11	14.3	9.3	5.04	15.8	18.9	-3.11
Kevin Huerter	72	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.10	-12	1	-13	14.0	12.0	1.97	15.6	18.4	-2.80
Cade Cunningham	96	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	13.5	0.0	13.52	16.3	0.0	16.27
Ronald Holland II	57	59	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.02	-20	9	-29	14.5	12.1	2.35	15.2	18.0	-2.85
Paul Reed	70	71	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.12	-17	6	-23	14.7	10.3	4.41	15.8	17.6	-1.84

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ja'Kobe Walter	52	51	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.09	17	-6	23	15.8	16.8	-1.03	15.2	11.6	3.53
Sandro Mamukelashvili	73	72	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-4	19	15.9	17.4	-1.53	14.6	10.2	4.42
Brandon Ingram	93	92	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-1	13	16.5	11.2	5.23	13.6	10.7	2.89
Scottie Barnes	97	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	16.3	0.0	16.27	13.5	0.0	13.52
RJ Barrett	92	90	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	4	3	16.3	15.8	0.49	13.3	16.5	-3.18
Jamal Shead	87	87	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	6	-1	16.4	15.4	0.97	14.1	7.8	6.34
Immanuel Quickley	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	4	3	16.9	14.0	2.99	13.7	12.8	0.97
Jakob Poeltl	79	78	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	8	-5	16.8	13.8	2.99	13.5	13.6	-0.11
Jonathan Mogbo	22	22	0.04	0.47	-0.43	0.01	1	10	-9	15.8	16.4	-0.58	13.0	13.7	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 114, PHI 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1	94.6%
WAS 86, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.76,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
TOR 103, BOS 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%