NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	5.2 [646]		MVP	Davion Mitchell (MIA): +22.6%
Miami Heat	131		Comeback	1.7 [542]		LVP	Georges Niang (ATL): -11.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terance Mann	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.01	-0.03	7	72%	0.12	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Caris LeVert	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	12	65%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dyson Daniels	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.02	10	82%	0.13	3	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mouhamed Gueye	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	83%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.01	-0.07	12	53%	0.13	4	-0.08	8	100%	0.05
Zaccharie Risacher	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	79%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	15	42%	0.02	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Georges Niang	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	10	35%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.20	0.08	0.06	8	118%	0.28	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.02	16	75%	0.24	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.17	0.02	0.03	5	117%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	12	77%	0.15	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	16	62%	0.12	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	54%	0.08	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	28.5	15.5	28.4	2.4	22.2	122.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.2	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.1%

MIA +11.0%

MIA +3.3%

MIA +5.5%

ATL -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.7	14.4	116.0	139.4	113.0
season	13.3	14.9		112.1	110.6
opponent	14.7	14.4		112.4	113.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	13.6	14.4	16.8	14.9
MIA	15.0	15.8	14.4	18.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Onyeka Okongwu	60	61	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.11	-3	-19	16	14.8	15.0	-0.15	16.1	15.1	0.99
Dyson Daniels	63	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.09	-6	-16	10	14.7	15.4	-0.67	15.9	15.3	0.59
Mouhamed Gueye	24	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.10	-7	-15	8	15.9	14.6	1.30	14.7	16.1	-1.38
Trae Young	72	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	-11	0	15.0	14.5	0.53	15.6	16.0	-0.41
Zaccharie Risacher	48	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.22	-18	-4	-14	15.9	13.8	2.11	15.5	16.0	-0.55
Caris LeVert	64	62	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-13	4	14.4	16.0	-1.56	16.0	15.3	0.64
Terance Mann	57	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.10	-18	-4	-14	14.5	15.6	-1.14	16.0	15.2	0.78
Georges Niang	48	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	-3	-16	14.7	15.1	-0.44	15.8	15.7	0.08
Clint Capela	34	33	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.03	-19	-3	-16	15.0	14.8	0.15	15.1	16.1	-0.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	50	52	0.71	-0.21	0.91	-0.20	31	-9	40	16.6	14.8	1.76	15.5	14.2	1.29
Duncan Robinson	62	62	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.18	27	-5	32	16.3	14.6	1.78	15.1	14.6	0.47
Kel'el Ware	60	61	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	14	-6	14.7	17.5	-2.77	13.8	16.9	-3.04
Tyler Herro	67	68	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	13	-4	15.8	15.6	0.15	14.5	16.0	-1.57
Davion Mitchell	73	75	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.09	11	11	0	15.6	16.3	-0.77	14.6	16.2	-1.57
Bam Adebayo	67	67	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.24	16	6	10	16.1	14.7	1.39	15.9	12.6	3.30
Andrew Wiggins	59	56	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.09	9	13	-4	15.2	16.7	-1.52	15.6	13.9	1.61
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	17	17	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	19	-16	15.4	15.8	-0.39	13.7	15.2	-1.46
Alec Burks	9	7	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	21	-20	17.1	15.6	1.52	19.3	14.6	4.73
Pelle Larsson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	24.0	15.6	8.35	6.0	15.0	-9.00
Kyle Anderson	5	4	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	27	-32	12.2	15.9	-3.73	9.2	15.2	-5.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.87,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.74,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.98,1,1	94.2%
MIN 90, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
SAS 85, LAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%