NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	112		Excitement	8.5 [121]		MVP	Haywood Highsmith (MIA): +36.3%
Phoenix Suns	115		Comeback	13.2 [117]		LVP	Terry Rozier (MIA): -24.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Haywood Highsmith	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.36	0.20	0.17	0.00	8	100%	0.36	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Tyler Herro	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.18	-0.04	0.03	15	80%	0.22	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Kel'el Ware	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	13	52%	-0.01	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.15	-0.02	-0.07	21	27%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	0.00	10	32%	-0.15	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.11,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.16	0.01	23	65%	0.42	6	-0.19	3	67%	-0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.15	0.08	0.01	8	91%	0.28	2	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01
Devin Booker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.10	0.01	17	59%	0.21	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Dunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	117%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.08	0.00	9	39%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	7	36%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	26.0	15.7	25.2	2.7	39.0	134.2
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.4	2.3	32.2	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +79.1%

MIA -14.7%

MIA -8.5%

MIA -13.8%

PHX +7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	15.2	13.9	14.4	112.0	117.3	112.3
season	14.9	14.9		111.3	113.6
opponent	14.2	14.5		114.5	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	12.6	15.3	17.0	15.2
PHX	14.3	14.1	12.9	14.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovic	11	10	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-5	7	16.4	15.0	1.33	13.9	13.9	0.00
Terry Rozier	65	65	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.39	10	-13	23	14.7	16.0	-1.26	14.8	12.1	2.77
Kel'el Ware	29	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	0	-3	14.7	15.4	-0.74	12.6	14.5	-1.92
Pelle Larsson	45	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	5	-13	15.8	14.7	1.09	13.1	14.5	-1.38
Haywood Highsmith	63	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-6	9	14.4	16.4	-1.99	14.9	12.2	2.70
Duncan Robinson	31	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	3	-9	16.4	14.6	1.80	11.8	14.9	-3.11
Tyler Herro	72	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.44	5	-8	13	15.0	15.7	-0.79	14.6	12.0	2.62
Bam Adebayo	72	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-3	3	15.2	15.2	0.00	14.5	12.6	1.92
Alec Burks	35	35	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.01	-15	12	-27	15.4	15.1	0.29	12.5	14.7	-2.24
Jimmy Butler	77	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.46	-3	0	-3	15.5	14.3	1.19	13.6	15.0	-1.38

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Booker	78	82	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.57	8	-5	13	13.7	14.8	-1.13	15.3	14.8	0.49
Jusuf Nurkic	68	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	-2	7	13.9	13.9	-0.00	15.1	15.4	-0.38
Bradley Beal	66	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	-1	5	13.7	14.4	-0.71	15.7	14.2	1.52
Kevin Durant	75	76	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	4	-5	14.3	12.7	1.51	15.1	15.5	-0.37
Tyus Jones	67	68	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.26	-1	4	-5	14.3	13.0	1.36	14.7	16.1	-1.39
Grayson Allen	45	44	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	2	-1	13.1	14.5	-1.41	15.7	14.8	0.94
Ryan Dunn	20	21	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	1	1	12.7	14.2	-1.51	15.2	15.2	0.07
Mason Plumlee	25	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	4	-5	14.2	13.8	0.41	15.8	15.0	0.86
Royce O'Neale	46	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	5	-7	14.5	13.3	1.18	14.4	15.9	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.38,0.3,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.7,0.71,0.52,0.55,0.78,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 92, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.39,0.25,0.33,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.61,0.79,0.98,0.99,1	92.1%
CHA 94, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.34,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.73,0.45,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	90.9%
NYK 94, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.85,0.85,1	90.7%