NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	94		Excitement	7.9 [276]		MVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): +14.7%
Toronto Raptors	104		Comeback	4.5 [476]		LVP	Jeremy Lamb (CHA): -17.6%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cody Zeller	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	7	75%	0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	12	65%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Brian Roberts	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Frank Kaminsky	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	10	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kemba Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	21	41%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
PJ Hairston	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	9	64%	0.10	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	10	25%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.1,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	9	78%	0.20	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	11	64%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.08	0.14	0.01	16	50%	0.21	6	-0.17	4	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.07	0.02	18	53%	-0.02	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.09	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	9	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	27.5	15.4	24.9	1.8	32.5	128.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +29.4%

TOR +0.5%

TOR +29.9%

CHA -8.9%

CHA -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	TOR	NBA	CHA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.2	16.3	14.9	106.8	116.9	105.1
season	15.1	16.1		105.5	107.2
opponent	14.8	14.8		104.6	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.0	18.6	14.3	17.2	16.2
TOR	15.6	18.3	18.5	13.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Hairston	38	39	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.19	-6	-4	-2	14.5	17.5	-3.07	17.4	15.5	1.88
Marvin Williams	49	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-7	4	15.1	17.6	-2.47	17.5	15.0	2.50
Tyler Hansbrough	24	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-8	6	17.0	15.9	1.08	14.5	17.1	-2.53
Nicolas Batum	77	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-4	-2	16.0	17.7	-1.73	16.7	14.2	2.50
Cody Zeller	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	15.6	17.2	-1.59	17.0	15.3	1.67
Kemba Walker	67	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-5	0	15.9	17.4	-1.53	16.5	15.7	0.86
Frank Kaminsky	49	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	17.3	14.8	2.55	15.4	17.6	-2.20
Jeremy Lamb	50	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	-9	8	17.7	14.2	3.48	15.6	17.3	-1.64
Brian Roberts	31	32	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	2	-14	17.6	15.4	2.21	15.0	17.1	-2.02

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	77	76	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.26	14	-4	18	16.6	14.8	1.73	16.4	15.3	1.02
Terrence Ross	42	41	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-5	20	13.8	18.6	-4.76	17.5	15.1	2.34
Bismack Biyombo	46	43	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	8	-6	15.2	17.6	-2.43	17.6	14.9	2.62
DeMarre Carroll	47	47	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	0	10	17.6	14.9	2.69	14.3	18.4	-4.03
Cory Joseph	33	33	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	7	-4	14.8	17.2	-2.40	17.2	15.6	1.55
Patrick Patterson	42	41	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	9	-8	14.9	17.6	-2.69	18.4	14.3	4.03
Jonas Valanciunas	43	45	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.21	8	2	6	17.6	15.2	2.43	14.9	17.6	-2.62
DeMar DeRozan	68	67	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	7	-4	16.8	14.8	1.98	15.6	18.2	-2.66
Luis Scola	38	39	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	11	-12	18.8	14.5	4.39	14.5	17.6	-3.10
James Johnson	9	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	15	-20	17.4	16.2	1.24	18.2	16.0	2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.34,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.8,0.73,0.45,0.79,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	93.1%
ORL 98, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.84,1	91.2%
IND 96, NYK 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.85,1	91.0%