NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	7.6 [327]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +21.5%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	5.1 [106]		LVP	Reggie Evans (TOR): -4.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.12	-0.03	0.00	20	56%	0.12	1	-0.03	15	60%	-0.14
Brandon Bass	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	9	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.01	11	44%	0.09	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Ryan Anderson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.03,0	0.05	-0.05	-0.01	14	62%	0.18	3	-0.18	6	83%	0.02
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.03	13	48%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.12	0.00	16	60%	0.25	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.07
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	12	54%	0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.03	0.07	14	66%	0.13	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.03
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.06	-0.02	10	46%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	30.0	18.5	26.1	1.5	34.5	137.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +0.0%

TOR +16.4%

TOR +28.9%

TOR +0.8%

TOR +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	18.9	15.5	116.7	122.9	105.7
season	15.2	15.1		106.3	104.7
opponent	15.5	16.2		111.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.8	15.1	15.6	16.9	15.6
TOR	22.3	17.6	17.1	19.1	18.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	41	41	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.12	6	-10	16	15.4	15.8	-0.42	18.1	19.7	-1.59
Ryan Anderson	36	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-4	4	14.2	16.6	-2.48	17.3	20.3	-3.07
Dwight Howard	68	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-6	8	15.5	16.1	-0.59	19.2	18.0	1.18
Hedo Turkoglu	62	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.35	3	-7	10	14.9	17.6	-2.78	20.0	15.9	4.05
Malik Allen	16	18	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	2	-8	16.1	15.5	0.59	18.0	19.2	-1.18
Brandon Bass	48	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	0	-4	16.6	14.2	2.48	20.3	17.3	3.07
Jameer Nelson	73	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	-2	0	15.9	13.2	2.76	18.7	20.2	-1.45
Jason Richardson	76	75	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.31	-19	15	-34	15.9	12.1	3.82	18.7	20.9	-2.15

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-6	16	18.9	19.3	-0.42	16.1	12.3	3.81
Leandro Barbosa	36	36	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-5	14	20.7	17.5	3.22	15.6	15.6	0.05
Ed Davis	30	32	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	0	4	22.4	17.0	5.39	17.2	14.6	2.54
Jerryd Bayless	59	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	2	0	19.3	18.1	1.19	15.4	16.0	-0.59
James Johnson	57	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	-2	8	18.1	20.8	-2.79	15.4	16.0	-0.58
Joey Dorsey	18	17	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	19.6	18.8	0.80	13.9	16.0	-2.13
Amir Johnson	42	43	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	7	-10	20.0	17.9	2.12	16.2	14.9	1.28
Sonny Weems	41	41	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.18	-6	10	-16	16.1	21.7	-5.54	14.9	16.2	-1.28
Reggie Evans	59	59	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.11	-7	11	-18	17.6	22.1	-4.44	14.9	17.1	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, SAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.26,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.73,0.61,0.63,0.75,0.99,1	92.5%
MIA 74, NYK 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.68,0.69,1	92.2%
BKN 95, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.83,1	92.2%