NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	113		Excitement	6.5 [524]		MVP	Dejounte Murray (ATL): +34.5%
Atlanta Hawks	122		Comeback	3.1 [707]		LVP	Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU): -15.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Holiday	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.01	0.02	10	86%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.02	10	76%	0.22	5	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Reggie Bullock Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Jae'Sean Tate	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	19	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jock Landale	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Green	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	22	51%	0.01	5	-0.11	7	57%	-0.03
Jabari Smith Jr.	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	15	30%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.34	0.34	0.21	0.11	-0.02	19	64%	0.36	1	-0.02	15	80%	0.01
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.05	0.04	15	71%	0.19	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.02	11	81%	0.18	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	16	47%	0.07	4	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Kobe Bufkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	41%	-0.00	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.05
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	12	32%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.7	28.2	14.6	30.1	2.3	37.6	139.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +35.6%

ATL +16.9%

HOU -20.2%

ATL +14.4%

ATL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ATL	NBA	HOU	ATL	NBA
this game	12.9	14.4	14.5	106.6	116.2	113.9
season	14.2	14.2		113.2	115.7
opponent	14.3	14.6		118.0	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.0	14.8	13.2	12.0	12.9
ATL	13.3	14.0	15.6	14.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jock Landale	29	29	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-14	19	12.8	13.0	-0.25	13.5	14.7	-1.21
Jae'Sean Tate	19	20	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-13	17	11.7	13.2	-1.53	14.3	14.4	-0.01
Reggie Bullock Jr.	32	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-10	11	12.2	13.2	-0.99	15.0	14.1	0.97
Nate Williams	19	19	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-11	13	11.5	13.3	-1.79	15.3	14.2	1.10
Aaron Holiday	48	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-10	11	13.2	12.7	0.56	15.0	13.8	1.20
Jalen Green	84	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	-2	-5	13.2	12.0	1.25	13.8	16.4	-2.65
Jabari Smith Jr.	82	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	12.8	13.4	-0.61	14.8	13.0	1.78
Amen Thompson	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.04	-15	6	-21	12.8	13.2	-0.39	14.2	14.8	-0.60
Dillon Brooks	77	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	1	-11	13.3	12.1	1.16	14.1	15.1	-1.08
Jeff Green	68	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.04	-20	11	-31	13.5	11.9	1.59	14.4	14.2	0.17

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Saddiq Bey	85	87	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-3	15	14.3	14.7	-0.48	13.1	12.1	1.09
Jalen Johnson	88	88	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-1	11	14.3	14.7	-0.41	13.0	12.6	0.47
Bogdan Bogdanovic	67	67	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-4	17	14.3	14.6	-0.30	13.2	12.5	0.76
Dejounte Murray	87	86	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	1	7	14.1	15.4	-1.24	13.3	11.4	1.84
Onyeka Okongwu	72	74	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.13	2	7	-5	13.9	15.3	-1.42	12.6	13.6	-0.98
Trae Young	72	73	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	10	-11	14.7	13.5	1.23	12.4	14.2	-1.84
Kobe Bufkin	34	35	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	9	-9	15.5	13.8	1.68	12.9	13.0	-0.13
Garrison Mathews	20	20	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	8	-7	14.6	14.3	0.29	12.6	13.0	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 86, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.42,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
NJN 94, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	93.7%
NJN 70, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.86,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%