NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	103		Excitement	5.8 [648]		MVP	Deandre Ayton (POR): +22.8%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	4.5 [762]		LVP	Scoot Henderson (POR): -15.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deandre Ayton	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.16	0.08	0.01	19	69%	0.26	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Toumani Camara	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duop Reath	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.01	0.00	3	133%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matisse Thybulle	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anfernee Simons	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.02	0.02	18	62%	0.09	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.02
Justin Minaya	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Murray	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scoot Henderson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	16	37%	-0.08	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.06	0.00	20	64%	0.21	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	16	62%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	6	100%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.04	-0.03	8	60%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	11	32%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	9	52%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	55%	0.04	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	25.2	14.6	27.3	1.7	25.2	120.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.8%

DEN +8.0%

DEN +7.7%

DEN +6.5%

POR -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	14.5	115.7	124.4	113.9
season	14.8	15.0		106.9	116.2
opponent	14.6	14.5		111.6	116.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.9	17.3	15.0	17.2	16.8
DEN	16.4	14.7	13.3	17.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toumani Camara	36	37	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.03	10	-19	29	18.9	15.3	3.66	16.9	14.4	2.59
Deandre Ayton	72	70	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-14	19	16.5	17.8	-1.31	16.3	12.4	3.89
Matisse Thybulle	62	62	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	16.7	16.9	-0.18	16.2	13.6	2.58
Anfernee Simons	72	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-8	7	16.7	17.0	-0.29	15.9	13.7	2.14
Justin Minaya	19	21	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-6	3	17.0	16.7	0.30	14.4	15.7	-1.30
Kris Murray	41	41	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.07	-15	6	-21	15.4	17.9	-2.46	13.9	16.7	-2.84
Scoot Henderson	60	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	-2	-5	17.3	15.7	1.59	15.6	15.1	0.47
Duop Reath	25	28	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.15	-16	7	-23	16.8	16.8	-0.01	13.0	16.5	-3.46
Jabari Walker	58	59	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.07	-22	13	-35	16.2	17.9	-1.70	14.5	17.3	-2.80

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	51	49	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.23	18	-9	27	15.9	14.8	1.15	17.4	15.9	1.52
Jamal Murray	65	64	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.21	16	-7	23	14.6	17.5	-2.90	16.4	17.8	-1.44
Peyton Watson	55	53	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-5	19	16.0	14.5	1.49	17.2	16.1	1.14
Reggie Jackson	40	40	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	3	3	15.9	15.1	0.81	17.2	16.4	0.75
Aaron Gordon	56	58	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.26	-2	11	-13	15.6	15.1	0.54	15.7	18.8	-3.18
DeAndre Jordan	14	13	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	4	1	14.9	15.5	-0.58	18.8	16.4	2.35
Nikola Jokic	64	64	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	14	-19	15.5	15.3	0.16	16.7	17.0	-0.33
Michael Porter Jr.	46	46	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.09	-2	11	-13	14.4	16.5	-2.15	16.6	17.0	-0.37
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	59	58	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	14	-19	15.7	14.8	0.89	16.8	16.6	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.22,0.2,0.32,0.4,0.58,0.7,0.82,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 80, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	93.3%
MIN 79, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.83,0.95,0.9,0.84,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.98,1	92.5%
DEN 100, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.54,0.74,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.97,0.97,0.85,0.84,1	92.3%