NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	79		Excitement	5.4 [721]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (MIN): +8.0%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	3.5 [248]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -21.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.01	0.02	13	68%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	59%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	12	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	15	42%	-0.03	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Terrell Brandon	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	11	50%	-0.01	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	4	10%	-0.12	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	-0.00	14	53%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.01	17	63%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	53%	0.07	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Duane Causwell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	11	45%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.05	0.02	15	39%	-0.13	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	25.1	16.7	21.2	1.5	34.5	128.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.8%

MIA +8.5%

MIA +1.1%

MIA +16.1%

MIN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	17.0	15.5	89.8	100.0	100.9
season	15.0	16.3		102.9	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.9		96.9	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.8	16.4	17.0	15.2	16.1
MIA	17.0	19.6	15.7	16.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Slater	42	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-5	3	15.8	16.4	-0.61	15.6	18.3	-2.68
Dean Garrett	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-6	5	13.1	16.4	-3.25	19.6	16.8	2.86
Sam Mitchell	15	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-6	5	14.9	16.3	-1.38	18.1	16.8	1.33
Anthony Peeler	65	64	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-10	13	15.9	16.5	-0.54	16.5	18.5	-1.97
William Avery	7	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.08	1	-8	9	20.3	15.7	4.57	18.1	16.9	1.21
Kevin Garnett	72	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-10	13	16.2	15.7	0.48	17.0	17.0	0.04
Terrell Brandon	73	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	15.4	19.4	-4.00	16.8	18.2	-1.41
Wally Szczerbiak	74	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	16.2	15.3	0.94	16.6	19.1	-2.43
Chauncey Billups	31	29	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.09	-13	6	-19	17.0	15.6	1.47	18.4	16.3	2.13
LaPhonso Ellis	53	52	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.28	-14	7	-21	16.8	15.0	1.75	18.0	15.6	2.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	75	77	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.26	6	1	5	16.6	20.2	-3.61	15.8	17.8	-1.99
Anthony Carter	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	6	-5	16.9	17.7	-0.79	15.4	20.0	-4.60
Tim Hardaway	68	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	-4	15	15.9	21.5	-5.65	16.2	15.4	0.80
Bruce Bowen	53	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	1	5	16.9	17.2	-0.29	16.4	15.6	0.75
A.C. Green	21	21	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	2	3	19.4	16.3	3.17	17.8	15.6	2.21
Anthony Mason	72	74	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	1	5	16.4	20.1	-3.71	16.3	15.1	1.20
Eddie House	29	31	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	5	-3	20.1	15.5	4.58	17.4	15.4	1.97
Dan Majerle	33	34	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	6	-5	17.2	16.9	0.29	15.6	16.4	-0.75
Duane Causwell	4	4	-0.04	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	10	-13	24.0	16.7	7.30	8.5	16.4	-7.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.83,0.95,0.9,0.84,0.9,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 80, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.95,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	92.8%
MIN 95, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,1,1	92.8%
CHA 96, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.92,1,0.98,1,1	92.7%