NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	7.0 [453]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +23.0%
Brooklyn Nets	107		Comeback	6.2 [200]		LVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): -20.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23	0.16	0.10	0.03	15	79%	0.37	4	-0.14	8	75%	0.01
Max Strus	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.06	0.02	12	75%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.04	0.02	11	85%	0.20	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.02	19	56%	0.14	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.04
Dewayne Dedmon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Omer Yurtseven	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.21	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	9	25%	-0.13	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.04	13	72%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.01	8	87%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	-0.00	21	61%	0.13	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.08
Nic Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Cam Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	8	33%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.07
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	10	40%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	2.3	29.6	15.6	30.3	2.4	31.6	142.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.2%

BKN -4.7%

MIA +12.9%

BKN -15.7%

MIA +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	14.7	15.7	14.5	118.9	112.6	110.8
season	14.9	14.4		112.0	112.8
opponent	14.5	14.9		112.1	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	15.1	12.5	17.1	14.7
BKN	16.0	15.5	16.8	14.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	65	63	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.32	12	-6	18	14.1	15.9	-1.87	16.7	13.7	3.03
Gabe Vincent	66	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	2	2	14.9	14.1	0.74	15.6	15.7	-0.10
Caleb Martin	72	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-7	20	14.7	14.6	0.06	15.7	15.5	0.25
Tyler Herro	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	-2	10	14.9	14.0	0.83	14.9	17.8	-2.90
Max Strus	68	68	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	2	2	15.4	12.8	2.57	15.7	15.5	0.20
Duncan Robinson	62	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	3	0	13.7	16.5	-2.81	16.5	13.8	2.74
Haywood Highsmith	30	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	1	4	13.4	15.2	-1.78	15.4	15.8	-0.34
Omer Yurtseven	11	12	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	17	-28	17.3	14.3	2.96	15.7	15.7	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	31	32	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.03	-8	14	-22	15.5	14.2	1.23	13.7	16.7	-3.03

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nic Claxton	13	14	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-8	10	16.1	15.6	0.48	13.4	14.9	-1.52
Cam Thomas	34	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	14.7	16.2	-1.54	13.8	15.1	-1.37
James Johnson	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-1	-4	16.2	15.5	0.78	11.6	15.7	-4.09
LaMarcus Aldridge	50	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.14	1	-7	8	14.7	16.7	-1.99	14.6	14.8	-0.21
Goran Dragic	53	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-5	4	15.6	15.8	-0.18	15.3	13.8	1.52
Bruce Brown	63	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.36	2	-8	10	15.6	15.8	-0.27	15.6	12.7	2.87
Andre Drummond	38	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	4	-14	17.7	14.3	3.37	14.0	15.1	-1.15
Kevin Durant	68	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-2	-2	15.7	15.5	0.25	15.0	13.7	1.33
Seth Curry	70	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-3	0	15.9	15.1	0.74	14.9	14.0	0.94
Patty Mills	61	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	6	-18	15.3	16.4	-1.12	14.9	14.2	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.21,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.29,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 96, TOR 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	91.5%
CHA 100, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.07,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.15,0	91.1%
BOS 99, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0,0	90.8%