NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	98		Excitement	9.0 [172]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +17.8%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	2.6 [233]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -31.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevon Looney	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	4	100%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	2	100%	0.14	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.04	0.14	-0.08	0.01	23	60%	0.11	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Bell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	0.00	16	47%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Quinn Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	5	67%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Kevin Durant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	19	44%	-0.00	4	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Draymond Green	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.29,-0.3	-0.09	-0.21	0.00	4	33%	-0.08	3	-0.22	4	50%	-0.12

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.04	-0.01	20	60%	0.18	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.10
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	6	65%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	57%	0.10	2	-0.07	12	75%	-0.04
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	41%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	8	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	7	23%	-0.12	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.10
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.32	-0.32	-0.12	-0.20	-0.00	9	14%	-0.32	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	2.3	30.6	15.7	25.6	1.7	38.4	143.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -13.3%

GSW -19.7%

DEN +41.1%

DEN +36.4%

DEN +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	15.4	14.3	100.0	99.0	109.3
season	13.4	14.8		114.5	112.0
opponent	14.6	15.0		108.1	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.4	16.9	13.9	13.4	13.5
DEN	14.8	12.6	15.4	19.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Bell	7	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-3	4	16.4	13.3	3.14	13.4	15.6	-2.12
Alfonzo McKinnie	7	9	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-2	2	10.4	13.7	-3.32	11.7	15.8	-4.11
Jonas Jerebko	26	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-6	10	14.9	13.0	1.87	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Damian Jones	38	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-2	2	12.2	14.3	-2.17	16.8	14.4	2.35
Draymond Green	65	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-5	8	12.7	15.1	-2.43	16.9	12.1	4.73
Kevon Looney	41	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	6	-14	14.0	13.2	0.80	13.1	17.0	-3.89
Quinn Cook	22	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	6	-14	15.2	13.0	2.21	13.3	16.0	-2.66
Klay Thompson	72	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-1	0	13.7	12.9	0.80	15.9	13.9	2.00
Andre Iguodala	51	53	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	3	-8	14.1	12.9	1.23	15.2	15.6	-0.34
Kevin Durant	79	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-2	2	13.8	12.2	1.61	15.6	14.7	0.87
Stephen Curry	82	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.49	3	-5	8	12.8	17.1	-4.32	15.5	14.9	0.63

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	47	45	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.02	18	-16	34	13.3	17.2	-3.94	15.2	12.1	3.08
Gary Harris	76	71	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-11	24	15.3	15.7	-0.36	13.5	13.6	-0.06
Juancho Hernangomez	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	0	2	14.0	16.7	-2.77	14.6	12.5	2.10
Trey Lyles	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	-3	8	14.9	15.8	-0.83	14.7	12.5	2.25
Mason Plumlee	34	32	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	-4	10	13.9	16.1	-2.21	14.0	13.3	0.77
Nikola Jokic	67	66	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	6	-10	16.1	13.9	2.21	13.3	14.0	-0.77
Paul Millsap	58	54	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.28	-3	5	-8	15.8	14.9	0.83	12.5	14.7	-2.25
Malik Beasley	22	23	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.22	-6	8	-14	15.7	15.3	0.41	13.2	13.6	-0.38
Torrey Craig	55	54	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.15	-5	7	-12	16.7	13.9	2.78	12.7	14.5	-1.80
Jamal Murray	54	53	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.42	-16	18	-34	17.2	13.3	3.94	12.1	15.2	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.35,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 82, ORL 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.74,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.76,0.71,0.91,0.73,1	94.0%
ATL 92, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.73,0.76,0.63,0.94,0.96,1	92.5%
LAC 93, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.9,1	92.0%