NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	100		Excitement	8.2 [239]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +34.3%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	3.0 [501]		LVP	Dwight Howard (CHA): -17.5%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.06	-0.00	7	94%	0.22	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Cody Zeller	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	6	75%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.07
Jeremy Lamb	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.08	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Michael Carter-Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.08,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Frank Kaminsky	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.07	-0.00	11	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.07	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	14	45%	-0.01	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Malik Monk	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	29%	-0.07	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-0.02	7	62%	0.04	9	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.33,0.33,0.34	0.34	0.21	0.15	0.01	14	87%	0.38	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.02
Dion Waiters	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.13	-0.05	14	56%	0.28	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.03	0.17	-0.01	6	57%	0.21	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.00	9	78%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	86%	0.16	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	8	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	7	56%	-0.01	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.20	-0.01	-0.05	12	27%	-0.04	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	28.3	14.5	25.3	1.5	36.5	135.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +81.8%

CHA -25.0%

CHA -0.3%

CHA -7.1%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	14.3	14.7	99.0	102.9	107.5
season	14.6	15.1		108.7	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.5		105.8	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.3	13.4	13.5	14.9	14.1
MIA	13.3	13.7	15.8	14.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Frank Kaminsky	34	34	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.13	-1	-4	3	14.9	13.6	1.24	13.9	14.5	-0.65
Malik Monk	40	42	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.18	-5	0	-5	15.2	13.3	1.93	14.2	14.4	-0.17
Dwight Howard	38	39	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-8	11	12.4	15.0	-2.58	13.5	14.8	-1.30
Nicolas Batum	77	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.37	6	-11	17	13.5	15.7	-2.16	14.2	14.7	-0.56
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	72	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	14.4	13.2	1.20	15.2	12.0	3.28
Jeremy Lamb	53	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	7	-19	14.3	13.7	0.59	13.3	15.5	-2.26
Cody Zeller	63	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	3	-11	15.0	12.4	2.58	14.8	13.5	1.30
Michael Carter-Williams	61	60	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.54	0	-5	5	13.3	15.2	-1.93	14.4	14.2	0.17
Marvin Williams	67	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.48	-4	-1	-3	13.6	14.9	-1.24	14.5	13.9	0.65

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	59	60	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.25	17	-12	29	14.2	14.5	-0.34	14.5	13.4	1.17
Josh Richardson	75	74	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.53	7	-2	9	14.1	15.0	-0.98	13.8	14.8	-0.98
Kelly Olynyk	60	58	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.19	18	-13	31	14.2	14.5	-0.36	15.7	11.9	3.83
Dion Waiters	64	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.46	0	5	-5	14.0	14.9	-0.88	13.2	15.6	-2.32
Goran Dragic	60	61	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.56	-7	12	-19	14.8	13.6	1.22	12.7	16.1	-3.42
Wayne Ellington	37	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.08	9	-4	13	14.2	14.4	-0.20	15.5	13.3	2.14
Tyler Johnson	45	43	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.28	10	-5	15	13.9	14.6	-0.72	16.0	12.7	3.30
Bam Adebayo	42	43	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.16	-13	18	-31	14.5	14.2	0.36	11.9	15.7	-3.83
Justise Winslow	68	66	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	-0.03	-16	21	-37	14.9	13.1	1.84	14.0	14.1	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.69,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.78,0.99,1	91.8%
SAS 80, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.96,1	90.8%
PHX 104, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.73,1	90.7%