NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	95		Excitement	7.3 [342]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +14.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	99		Comeback	3.8 [477]		LVP	Metta World Peace (IND): -31.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Croshere	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	3	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.02	10	68%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Al Harrington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.09	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scot Pollard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	20	54%	0.02	2	-0.05	12	67%	-0.03
Fred Jones	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.31	-0.07	-0.23	0.01	4	25%	-0.16	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.31	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.2,-0.32,-0.31	-0.01	-0.25	0.04	19	56%	-0.03	4	-0.28	3	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.07	0.02	8	81%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theron Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	4	75%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.00	7	71%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.04
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	65%	0.09	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	15	48%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	53%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.02	7	71%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	4	45%	-0.04	1	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.6	2.7	28.2	15.8	26.2	2.8	37.0	144.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +24.0%

MEM +10.9%

IND -6.0%

MEM +23.0%

IND -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MEM	NBA	IND	MEM	NBA
this game	16.4	15.2	15.7	104.4	108.8	100.5
season	16.7	15.3		101.1	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		100.5	94.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.5	18.0	18.5	16.0	16.4
MEM	17.2	14.1	14.2	15.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Croshere	21	20	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.09	-2	-2	0	17.8	16.0	1.81	16.3	14.9	1.43
Scot Pollard	11	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	0	-4	17.5	16.3	1.28	13.4	15.5	-2.06
Anthony Johnson	29	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.08	-6	2	-8	17.9	15.7	2.22	14.5	15.5	-1.07
Al Harrington	48	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	2	-8	17.2	15.5	1.67	15.6	14.9	0.67
Fred Jones	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	7	-18	18.6	15.2	3.40	16.2	14.7	1.46
Jeff Foster	54	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.50	8	-12	20	15.5	17.7	-2.21	15.3	15.1	0.20
Reggie Miller	53	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.58	6	-10	16	15.2	18.2	-2.99	14.9	15.8	-0.93
Jamaal Tinsley	63	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-6	8	15.6	18.4	-2.80	15.3	15.0	0.27
Jermaine O'Neal	71	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-1	-2	16.3	16.8	-0.55	15.5	14.0	1.53
Metta World Peace	73	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.47	-4	0	-4	16.2	17.3	-1.14	14.7	17.4	-2.76

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	53	53	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.30	19	-15	34	14.2	16.7	-2.59	17.6	14.8	2.80
Mike Miller	48	50	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.30	17	-13	30	15.1	15.3	-0.18	17.4	15.2	2.27
Jason Williams	58	58	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.53	-6	10	-16	15.1	15.4	-0.30	15.4	18.1	-2.67
James Posey	58	59	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.52	-7	11	-18	15.2	15.2	0.03	15.1	18.8	-3.65
Pau Gasol	62	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.52	-8	12	-20	15.4	14.8	0.64	15.2	18.8	-3.60
Theron Smith	33	32	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.14	11	-7	18	15.2	15.2	-0.03	18.8	15.1	3.65
Earl Watson	33	33	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.15	10	-6	16	15.4	15.1	0.30	18.1	15.4	2.67
Stromile Swift	42	43	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.14	7	-3	10	15.1	15.3	-0.25	17.7	15.2	2.52
Jake Tsakalidis	25	25	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.09	-10	14	-24	17.2	14.5	2.77	14.6	17.1	-2.56
Shane Battier	43	41	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.08	-13	17	-30	15.3	15.1	0.18	15.2	17.4	-2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.78,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 107, UTA 114	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.35,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.25,0.28,0.86,1,1	92.4%
CHA 100, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.69,0.98,1	91.8%
POR 97, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.29,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.66,0.96,1	91.2%