NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	107		Excitement	8.4 [213]		MVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): +26.7%
Utah Jazz	114		Comeback	7.0 [406]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): -24.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elfrid Payton	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.14	0.00	17	62%	0.28	1	-0.01	11	64%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.06	0.05	14	68%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Jodie Meeks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.02	-0.03	8	60%	0.12	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Mario Hezonja	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	10	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Bismack Biyombo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
D.J. Augustin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.24	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.21	-0.02	15	50%	-0.07	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.14	0.02	9	76%	0.26	0	0.00	7	71%	0.09
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.06	0.02	10	79%	0.25	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Rodney Hood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.02	0.17	-0.01	14	48%	0.27	3	-0.11	1	0%	-0.01
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.07	0.03	12	63%	0.20	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.03
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.03	0.05	3	133%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	13	41%	0.05	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Raul Neto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Withey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.09	0.00	5	62%	0.02	1	-0.08	3	33%	-0.04
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	8	32%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	5	20%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	1.6	30.4	15.3	26.6	2.4	36.5	141.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +10.1%

UTA +31.3%

UTA +6.4%

UTA +7.2%

ORL -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	UTA	NBA	ORL	UTA	NBA
this game	13.9	14.6	14.8	105.9	112.9	107.7
season	14.6	16.1		103.0	108.0
opponent	15.0	14.9		105.0	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.9	14.5	15.1	14.3	13.9
UTA	14.7	14.3	14.9	14.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	67	67	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.34	10	-17	27	13.9	13.9	-0.05	15.7	12.5	3.13
Elfrid Payton	82	79	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.26	7	-14	21	13.9	14.1	-0.24	15.6	11.2	4.38
Serge Ibaka	65	65	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-12	17	14.2	13.4	0.81	16.0	12.1	3.96
Aaron Gordon	79	80	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.42	11	-18	29	14.0	13.7	0.29	15.8	10.0	5.81
Jodie Meeks	80	79	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.31	6	-13	19	14.0	13.7	0.31	14.9	13.5	1.35
Mario Hezonja	10	10	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.16	-14	7	-21	13.8	13.9	-0.12	11.4	15.0	-3.56
CJ Watson	19	20	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	7	-21	13.9	13.9	0.04	11.7	15.3	-3.62
Bismack Biyombo	34	34	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	10	-27	13.9	13.9	0.05	12.5	15.7	-3.13
Jeff Green	41	40	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	10	-27	13.7	14.1	-0.42	12.2	16.2	-3.98
D.J. Augustin	28	31	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	5	-17	13.4	14.1	-0.72	11.4	16.0	-4.69

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Favors	70	69	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.60	7	0	7	14.3	15.3	-0.99	13.4	15.0	-1.64
Rodney Hood	68	67	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.48	6	1	5	14.9	13.9	0.99	13.9	13.9	-0.05
Boris Diaw	29	30	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.09	21	-14	35	13.0	15.2	-2.25	15.3	13.3	2.02
Gordon Hayward	78	79	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.39	-3	10	-13	15.3	12.3	3.03	14.2	13.0	1.22
Raul Neto	16	14	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	1	5	12.1	15.1	-2.95	15.4	13.7	1.68
George Hill	70	70	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	2	3	15.1	13.5	1.66	13.8	14.2	-0.41
Rudy Gobert	75	74	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.26	-6	13	-19	15.3	12.5	2.89	13.8	14.3	-0.53
Joe Ingles	26	25	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	6	-5	11.9	15.5	-3.61	12.3	14.4	-2.17
Jeff Withey	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	7	-7	0.0	14.6	-14.60	13.0	13.9	-0.92
Alec Burks	31	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.31	10	-3	13	13.9	14.9	-0.96	14.4	13.7	0.69
Dante Exum	15	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	11	-15	14.9	14.6	0.31	13.2	14.0	-0.81
Trey Lyles	27	28	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.16	-8	15	-23	15.6	14.2	1.35	14.3	13.8	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.35,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.25,0.28,0.86,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.78,0.99,1	92.4%
PHX 104, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.73,1	89.5%
OKC 99, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.33,0.45,0.72,0.93,0.84,1	89.2%