NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	97		Excitement	8.2 [231]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +34.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	105		Comeback	5.2 [411]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -27.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	3	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.03	0.00	15	62%	0.12	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	10	65%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19	-0.03	-0.12	0.04	15	41%	-0.19	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.1,-0.01,-0.27,-0.27	-0.04	-0.23	0.01	26	48%	-0.08	3	-0.19	8	62%	0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.31,0.31,0.35	0.35	0.31	0.12	0.08	25	81%	0.58	4	-0.23	7	86%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	7	56%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.08	0.00	18	42%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	50%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	10	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.09
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	15	31%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	23.4	15.8	24.5	1.8	36.2	125.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +69.6%

POR -1.5%

POR -17.5%

OKC +6.2%

POR -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	OKC	NBA	POR	OKC	NBA
this game	16.7	15.6	15.1	110.2	116.7	105.2
season	15.1	14.4		109.6	107.8
opponent	15.4	14.8		102.9	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.3	16.8	16.9	16.9	16.7
OKC	15.7	16.0	15.8	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	47	50	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.10	3	-11	14	16.3	17.2	-0.92	15.8	15.4	0.40
Thomas Robinson	19	19	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-11	14	17.1	16.6	0.41	17.3	15.2	2.05
CJ McCollum	24	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-2	-4	15.7	17.1	-1.46	15.4	15.7	-0.28
Robin Lopez	61	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-10	12	17.2	15.6	1.58	15.7	15.6	0.07
Joel Freeland	26	28	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	1	-10	16.0	17.0	-1.03	15.3	15.8	-0.52
Damian Lillard	64	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-6	4	17.1	15.7	1.46	15.7	15.4	0.28
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	0	-8	16.9	16.3	0.55	15.4	16.4	-0.97
Wesley Matthews	66	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	-1	-6	16.7	16.7	0.00	16.0	14.7	1.28
Nicolas Batum	65	67	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.29	-16	8	-24	16.6	17.0	-0.31	15.1	17.3	-2.23

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	58	57	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.43	10	-2	12	15.3	16.3	-1.09	16.8	16.6	0.13
Kendrick Perkins	49	50	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.31	10	-2	12	15.6	15.7	-0.16	17.5	15.7	1.79
Kevin Durant	72	71	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-5	18	15.1	18.0	-2.94	16.4	18.2	-1.80
Serge Ibaka	56	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	4	0	15.3	16.1	-0.81	17.6	15.0	2.62
Reggie Jackson	68	68	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.34	1	7	-6	16.1	14.2	1.88	17.5	14.1	3.40
Derek Fisher	36	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	4	0	16.2	15.3	0.87	15.5	17.5	-2.04
Nick Collison	38	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	9	-10	15.8	15.6	0.21	15.3	17.6	-2.30
Jeremy Lamb	40	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.08	0	8	-8	15.5	15.7	-0.17	16.0	17.3	-1.33
Steven Adams	33	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.13	-1	9	-10	16.7	15.0	1.66	16.7	16.8	-0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.29,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.66,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.78,0.99,1	91.2%
DAL 99, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.51,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.21,0.29,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.68,0.95,1	90.8%
MEM 92, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.48,0.37,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.76,0.99,1	90.3%