NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	99		Excitement	8.1 [251]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +30.6%
Golden State Warriors	103		Comeback	7.1 [142]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -10.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	-0.07	0.03	13	76%	0.15	1	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.09,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	14	63%	0.21	4	-0.19	10	90%	0.06
Erick Dampier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	62%	0.07	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	19	55%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	10%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devean George	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.15,-0.1	-0.05	-0.09	-0.03	19	45%	0.06	3	-0.16	4	50%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29,0.31	0.31	0.18	0.16	0.03	17	72%	0.35	2	-0.05	12	50%	-0.08
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.01	14	59%	0.22	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	15	58%	0.15	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.04	-0.00	9	62%	0.07	1	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	4	36%	0.03	2	-0.08	3	0%	-0.11
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	3.6	37.0	18.8	33.0	3.5	39.0	159.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +54.6%

DAL -22.0%

DAL -29.2%

GSW +46.1%

GSW +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	17.4	13.7	15.4	106.5	112.0	104.5
season	16.3	13.5		108.7	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.2		105.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.5	18.0	15.9	18.3	17.4
GSW	14.5	13.9	13.4	13.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	4	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-3	2	17.2	17.4	-0.17	4.0	14.0	-10.03
Devin Harris	39	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-4	4	15.0	19.1	-4.15	15.3	12.5	2.82
Devean George	28	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.12	-2	-2	0	18.4	17.0	1.41	13.8	13.7	0.14
Greg Buckner	11	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	5	-14	18.4	17.3	1.08	10.2	14.1	-3.93
DeSagana Diop	50	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-4	4	17.8	17.0	0.85	14.2	13.0	1.20
Dirk Nowitzki	91	89	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-7	10	17.4	16.5	0.93	14.0	5.7	8.31
Jason Terry	82	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-2	0	17.4	17.8	-0.46	13.6	14.8	-1.26
Josh Howard	89	89	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.40	-2	-2	0	17.4	17.2	0.17	14.0	4.0	10.03
Jerry Stackhouse	71	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	3	-10	18.0	15.6	2.32	12.7	16.6	-3.95

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	51	53	1.00	-0.50	1.49	0.35	22	-18	40	12.5	15.2	-2.69	17.6	17.2	0.37
Jason Richardson	78	80	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.44	0	4	-4	14.0	12.3	1.68	17.9	14.5	3.43
Baron Davis	85	85	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.45	-1	5	-6	13.8	13.0	0.76	17.3	19.0	-1.74
Al Harrington	26	29	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	-4	12	11.9	14.4	-2.49	18.1	17.1	1.01
Stephen Jackson	78	77	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.38	-4	8	-12	14.0	12.2	1.76	17.8	15.7	2.00
Monta Ellis	43	45	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	-2	8	14.4	13.1	1.29	17.0	17.8	-0.75
Andris Biedrins	45	43	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	15	-26	15.4	12.1	3.31	16.8	17.9	-1.11
Mickael Pietrus	54	53	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.10	0	4	-4	12.9	14.9	-1.98	16.7	18.3	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.51,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.21,0.29,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.68,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.29,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.66,0.96,1	90.8%
TOR 98, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.26,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.63,0.67,1,1	90.8%
MIN 94, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.68,0.73,1	90.4%