NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	100		Excitement	6.1 [586]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +28.7%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	2.0 [685]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -26.1%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Henderson	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17	0.21	0.00	0.04	18	71%	0.17	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Bismack Biyombo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
PJ Hairston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Taylor	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	17	38%	-0.04	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Kemba Walker	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	20	38%	-0.05	3	-0.10	5	60%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.29	0.29	0.16	0.14	0.01	16	70%	0.33	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	17	58%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	8	71%	0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	56%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.26,-0.27,-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.10	0.00	17	43%	-0.07	7	-0.19	10	70%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	33.1	15.4	28.0	1.8	36.2	140.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.8%

MIA +2.8%

MIA +4.6%

CHA -1.8%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	14.8	15.1	107.5	111.7	104.2
season	15.6	16.0		98.9	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.1		105.4	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.2	15.8	18.1	15.1	16.0
MIA	14.2	13.6	15.4	16.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Henderson	59	59	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.22	6	-11	17	15.5	16.8	-1.32	15.9	13.1	2.81
PJ Hairston	17	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	13.3	16.6	-3.30	11.9	15.5	-3.62
Noah Vonleh	4	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	0	-5	23.0	15.7	7.33	12.7	14.9	-2.16
Jason Maxiell	22	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	1	-7	17.4	15.6	1.80	13.6	15.1	-1.55
Lance Stephenson	39	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-5	5	17.4	15.0	2.40	13.6	15.7	-2.17
Jeff Taylor	37	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	1	-7	17.1	15.2	1.90	16.1	14.1	2.00
Marvin Williams	80	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-9	13	15.1	21.5	-6.36	14.8	14.8	0.06
Mo Williams	55	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-7	9	15.5	16.8	-1.31	14.1	15.9	-1.72
Bismack Biyombo	78	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-3	1	16.1	15.3	0.78	15.1	13.1	2.02
Kemba Walker	74	74	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.30	-14	9	-23	16.1	15.5	0.65	15.4	12.6	2.82

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	66	67	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-4	13	15.4	13.5	1.83	15.6	16.9	-1.24
Luol Deng	78	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	-1	7	15.1	13.6	1.44	16.3	14.4	1.89
Udonis Haslem	57	53	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.37	1	4	-3	15.0	14.5	0.50	15.8	16.3	-0.55
James Ennis	50	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.10	8	-3	11	14.4	15.3	-0.90	16.7	15.2	1.49
Tyler Johnson	51	50	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.36	-1	6	-7	13.8	16.0	-2.18	15.6	16.4	-0.80
Chris Andersen	25	25	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.00	7	-2	9	14.2	15.1	-0.90	16.7	15.7	1.00
Goran Dragic	68	66	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.22	-1	6	-7	15.1	14.2	0.92	15.9	16.3	-0.43
Henry Walker	16	15	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	6	-7	13.6	15.1	-1.44	14.4	16.3	-1.89
Mario Chalmers	19	19	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	5	-5	13.9	15.0	-1.09	15.2	16.2	-1.04
Hassan Whiteside	40	43	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	8	-11	15.8	14.1	1.75	16.6	15.5	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.73,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 90, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.85,0.93,0.97,1	93.6%
DET 91, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	92.3%
PHI 77, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.59,0.79,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	92.3%