NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	5.5 [727]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +15.9%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.5 [815]		LVP	Walter Herrmann (DET): -9.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	10	81%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	58%	0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Allen Iverson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	18	51%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Kwame Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	7	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	16	44%	-0.04	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	11	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.03	-0.02	11	73%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	7	86%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.03	20	63%	0.20	6	-0.15	9	89%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.02	10	58%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	46%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	11	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.0	30.0	16.5	28.4	2.5	29.2	134.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.5%

DET -5.6%

MIA +9.0%

DET -10.6%

MIA +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	15.0	15.5	102.2	114.4	106.4
season	16.9	16.0		104.9	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.7	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.1	15.7	19.0	16.2	17.2
MIA	16.1	14.3	14.4	15.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	19	17	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-14	16	14.8	17.9	-3.08	12.9	15.5	-2.51
Walter Herrmann	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-14	16	15.5	17.7	-2.21	15.5	14.8	0.65
Amir Johnson	3	3	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-7	2	19.3	17.1	2.19	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Allen Iverson	69	70	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-11	10	17.0	17.9	-0.95	14.9	15.1	-0.16
Jason Maxiell	46	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-8	4	16.4	18.1	-1.75	13.5	16.4	-2.98
Rasheed Wallace	63	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-7	2	17.6	16.3	1.28	15.6	13.4	2.19
Richard Hamilton	51	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	-1	-10	16.6	18.0	-1.37	14.5	15.5	-1.03
Antonio McDyess	42	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-3	-6	18.6	15.9	2.71	16.4	13.6	2.84
Tayshaun Prince	76	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	0	-12	17.6	15.2	2.41	15.2	13.7	1.51
Rodney Stuckey	55	56	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.01	-17	5	-22	18.1	15.8	2.30	15.0	15.0	-0.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	77	76	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.05	23	-11	34	14.4	18.5	-4.16	18.1	12.3	5.74
Jamario Moon	61	59	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	0	12	14.6	15.8	-1.20	16.4	18.7	-2.29
Udonis Haslem	70	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	2	8	15.4	13.3	2.09	17.5	16.1	1.44
Yakhouba Diawara	42	43	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	2	8	15.3	14.7	0.53	18.6	15.9	2.65
Jermaine O'Neal	57	56	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.04	14	-2	16	14.6	15.5	-0.90	18.4	15.2	3.28
Michael Beasley	46	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	11	-10	14.4	15.6	-1.24	15.5	19.0	-3.50
Daequan Cook	59	56	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	14	-16	15.0	14.9	0.16	15.7	19.8	-4.04
Joel Anthony	7	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	13	-14	17.0	14.8	2.19	15.4	17.4	-1.94
Mario Chalmers	31	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	19	-26	16.7	14.1	2.69	17.4	17.1	0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 84, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1	95.1%
PHI 77, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.59,0.79,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	94.4%
TOR 103, BOS 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%