NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	7.1 [354]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +32.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	104		Comeback	1.3 [697]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -19.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.33	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.33	0.26	0.13	0.06	24	66%	0.33	0	0.00	14	93%	0.07
Jake Voskuhl	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	-0.00	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Yi Jianlian	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	11	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Royal Ivey	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	10	25%	-0.12	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Andrew Bogut	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.09	0.03	16	38%	-0.12	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0,-0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.10	0.04	20	62%	0.31	3	-0.12	16	94%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	5	86%	0.21	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	11	52%	0.08	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	40%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	11	54%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Kurt Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	5	57%	0.02	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	11	21%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	33.0	13.8	29.5	2.0	48.2	153.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +51.8%

SEA +17.3%

SEA +5.9%

MIL -21.4%

MIL -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SEA	NBA	MIL	SEA	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	15.4	103.2	109.5	105.7
season	15.8	14.5		103.4	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.2		107.9	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.7	15.3	18.0	15.0	16.0
SEA	14.9	15.4	13.3	13.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Voskuhl	13	14	0.25	-0.75	1.01	-0.04	10	-16	26	16.1	16.0	0.13	15.5	14.1	1.35
Charlie Bell	15	17	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-13	20	13.1	16.5	-3.37	13.5	14.5	-1.00
Charlie Villanueva	34	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-11	16	18.9	14.3	4.54	15.7	13.6	2.07
Royal Ivey	33	33	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-7	8	17.8	15.0	2.79	16.1	13.4	2.72
Michael Redd	88	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	15.9	16.6	-0.65	14.2	15.5	-1.26
Yi Jianlian	63	64	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	3	-12	14.6	18.7	-4.10	14.0	15.0	-0.97
Mo Williams	76	76	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	5	-16	15.5	17.9	-2.47	13.3	18.5	-5.22
Desmond Mason	71	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.27	-12	6	-18	16.1	15.5	0.68	14.6	13.6	1.01
Andrew Bogut	82	81	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.28	-16	10	-26	16.0	16.1	-0.13	14.1	15.5	-1.35

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	79	80	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.27	18	-12	30	13.8	16.8	-2.96	15.7	17.2	-1.46
Earl Watson	82	82	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-8	22	13.6	18.8	-5.12	15.7	17.4	-1.64
Damien Wilkins	60	64	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	1	4	14.0	14.9	-0.94	15.7	16.5	-0.77
Chris Wilcox	72	72	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.06	13	-7	20	14.7	13.1	1.66	16.5	14.3	2.14
Kurt Thomas	43	44	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.26	6	0	6	13.9	14.7	-0.89	14.8	17.0	-2.18
Nick Collison	58	56	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.28	-3	9	-12	14.0	14.9	-0.89	16.1	15.8	0.34
Jeff Green	27	27	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	15.5	13.9	1.64	16.4	15.8	0.67
Mickael Gelabale	13	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	14	-22	18.8	13.6	5.12	17.4	15.7	1.64
Wally Szczerbiak	41	37	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.03	-9	15	-24	15.3	13.6	1.75	16.7	15.5	1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 111, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.84,0.98,0.99,1	93.4%
ATL 84, CHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.2%
MIN 86, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.55,0.51,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.2%