NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	84		Excitement	7.5 [328]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +30.1%
Chicago Bulls	91		Comeback	1.1 [992]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (CHI): -11.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Scott	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.01	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pero Antic	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	38%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.06	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	18	38%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Shelvin Mack	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	16	47%	0.05	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.12	0.17	-0.01	14	71%	0.33	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	11	42%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Tony Snell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.08	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	6	44%	0.03	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.02	15	47%	0.05	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	12	38%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	13	39%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	27.1	16.5	26.9	1.8	29.4	128.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +36.6%

ATL -1.7%

CHI +2.6%

CHI +14.0%

ATL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.4	16.0	15.1	94.4	102.2	105.2
season	14.8	16.3		103.8	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.3		99.6	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.2	17.4	14.6	16.2	16.4
CHI	15.5	15.4	17.3	15.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pero Antic	42	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-10	13	16.4	16.3	0.13	15.1	16.8	-1.62
Louis Williams	36	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-5	3	16.6	16.2	0.42	15.5	16.3	-0.80
Elton Brand	36	36	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	1	-9	16.9	16.0	0.98	16.4	15.7	0.65
Shelvin Mack	29	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-1	-5	16.9	16.1	0.85	15.5	16.2	-0.72
DeMarre Carroll	71	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-5	3	16.8	14.6	2.19	16.6	13.8	2.79
Jeff Teague	60	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-6	5	16.1	16.9	-0.85	16.2	15.5	0.72
Mike Scott	48	47	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	1	-9	16.2	16.6	-0.42	15.8	16.2	-0.45
Paul Millsap	56	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	0	-7	16.1	16.8	-0.78	16.2	15.7	0.49
Kyle Korver	67	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-3	-1	15.8	18.1	-2.36	16.0	16.0	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	54	54	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	1	5	15.2	17.2	-1.93	16.9	15.6	1.30
Joakim Noah	62	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	3	1	15.6	16.9	-1.33	16.6	15.6	1.01
Mike Dunleavy	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	1	5	15.5	16.7	-1.26	16.8	15.8	0.98
Luol Deng	56	58	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	3	1	15.5	16.8	-1.30	15.9	17.1	-1.18
Taj Gibson	72	71	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	4	-1	16.3	14.7	1.60	16.3	16.7	-0.38
Jimmy Butler	69	67	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	3	1	16.8	13.3	3.48	16.4	16.2	0.18
Tony Snell	17	18	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	3	1	14.7	16.3	-1.60	16.7	16.3	0.38
Nazr Mohammed	27	24	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	4	-1	16.9	15.6	1.33	15.6	16.6	-1.01
Kirk Hinrich	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	6	-5	17.2	15.2	1.93	15.6	16.9	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 89, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
GSW 102, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.55,0.69,0.96,0.94,0.85,1	93.6%
ORL 83, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%