NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	6.0 [594]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +21.6%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	1.4 [977]		LVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): -20.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	16	67%	0.17	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.04
Steven Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sean Rooks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.06	-0.01	15	60%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Penigar	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.03	21	54%	0.01	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02
Tyronn Lue	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	10	20%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.13	0.04	14	68%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.00	13	61%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	69%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	15	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	0.01	-0.03	11	43%	-0.05	2	-0.04	15	80%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	8	45%	-0.05	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.07	-0.02	15	24%	-0.20	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.7	27.1	16.4	22.5	2.5	31.2	128.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -12.3%

MIA +19.3%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +31.5%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	16.6	15.7	95.7	108.7	100.5
season	15.7	16.2		100.9	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.8	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.8	13.2	14.0	16.6	14.6
MIA	15.2	17.5	16.7	16.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Penigar	12	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-15	19	12.8	14.8	-1.98	15.7	16.7	-1.00
Zaza Pachulia	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	11.0	14.6	-3.60	20.0	16.5	3.45
DeShawn Stevenson	69	69	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-9	7	14.5	14.6	-0.09	17.1	15.1	2.00
Steven Hunter	30	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-12	13	14.4	14.6	-0.19	18.5	15.7	2.77
Tyronn Lue	77	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-7	3	14.2	16.3	-2.12	16.8	15.6	1.18
Juwan Howard	73	75	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-6	1	13.8	17.1	-3.30	16.8	15.6	1.15
Andrew DeClercq	47	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	15.4	13.7	1.79	15.7	17.4	-1.71
Reece Gaines	16	15	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-4	-3	16.3	14.2	2.12	15.6	16.8	-1.18
Sean Rooks	35	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.00	-13	2	-15	15.1	14.3	0.80	15.6	17.2	-1.63
Keith Bogans	30	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-2	-7	15.2	14.2	1.00	15.6	17.0	-1.46
Tracy McGrady	75	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.10	-15	4	-19	14.6	14.4	0.14	16.6	16.4	0.26

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	41	42	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-4	19	16.1	17.0	-0.84	16.2	13.2	3.02
Rasual Butler	46	45	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	0	11	17.0	16.2	0.78	14.8	14.4	0.42
Udonis Haslem	42	41	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	1	9	16.9	16.3	0.63	14.7	14.5	0.22
Rafer Alston	82	83	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	2	7	16.6	16.2	0.43	14.7	13.1	1.63
Lamar Odom	76	77	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	5	1	16.5	16.8	-0.27	14.3	15.7	-1.44
Brian Grant	66	68	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	5	1	16.4	17.0	-0.58	14.8	14.0	0.76
Caron Butler	39	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	11	-11	16.1	17.0	-0.93	14.2	14.8	-0.63
Eddie Jones	68	69	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	13	-15	16.9	15.8	1.02	13.4	17.9	-4.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	95.1%
DET 94, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.0%
POR 83, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.77,0.66,0.69,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	93.9%