NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	6.2 [560]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +10.2%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.4 [942]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -13.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew DeClercq	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.06	-0.03	6	43%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	9	56%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	13	46%	0.00	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	21	48%	-0.02	4	-0.08	8	100%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	9	64%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	16	63%	0.06	2	-0.05	11	64%	-0.07
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	-0.03	7	29%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	0.05	20	48%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.06
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	13	37%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.6	28.1	16.5	22.4	2.6	30.3	127.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +21.7%

ORL -8.4%

SAS +21.3%

SAS +11.2%

SAS +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	16.4	15.7	89.2	106.5	100.5
season	15.7	15.9		100.9	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.4		92.7	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.0	13.8	14.3	17.5	14.8
SAS	13.7	16.2	17.1	19.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	47	47	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.19	16	-31	47	14.1	15.4	-1.31	17.9	14.8	3.11
Rod Strickland	43	42	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.21	8	-23	31	14.0	15.4	-1.49	17.0	15.9	1.12
Shammond Williams	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	12.7	14.8	-2.16	14.0	16.5	-2.47
Steven Hunter	11	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-15	15	15.2	14.7	0.49	15.6	16.5	-0.89
Zaza Pachulia	10	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-9	3	14.0	14.8	-0.84	12.4	16.8	-4.37
Gordan Giricek	64	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-10	5	14.1	16.2	-2.11	16.4	16.5	-0.11
Juwan Howard	68	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-6	-3	14.1	16.6	-2.53	16.2	17.0	-0.77
Tyronn Lue	46	46	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.24	-22	7	-29	15.5	14.0	1.56	16.2	16.6	-0.35
Tracy McGrady	80	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-2	-11	14.8	14.5	0.34	16.8	13.9	2.85
Keith Bogans	43	43	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.08	-15	0	-15	15.7	13.9	1.84	15.5	17.2	-1.65
Drew Gooden	50	50	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	0.14	-31	16	-47	16.3	12.9	3.43	16.1	16.7	-0.64

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	42	43	0.74	-0.24	0.98	-0.11	29	-14	43	15.3	17.3	-1.95	16.5	13.3	3.19
Hedo Turkoglu	42	42	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.07	13	2	11	16.0	16.7	-0.68	15.9	13.8	2.01
Tim Duncan	78	81	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	0	15	16.3	16.8	-0.47	14.6	15.8	-1.24
Tony Parker	72	72	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.02	12	3	9	16.9	14.4	2.48	14.1	16.9	-2.72
Bruce Bowen	60	63	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.08	15	0	15	15.9	17.2	-1.32	14.0	16.3	-2.33
Ron Mercer	10	9	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	12	-9	15.8	16.5	-0.66	13.3	14.9	-1.57
Jason Hart	20	21	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	12	-9	14.4	16.9	-2.48	16.9	14.1	2.72
Manu Ginobili	72	72	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	16	-17	17.1	13.9	3.12	14.9	14.1	0.85
Malik Rose	10	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	17	-19	16.9	16.3	0.57	12.7	15.0	-2.31
Rasho Nesterovic	54	53	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.23	-12	27	-39	17.2	15.2	2.01	14.0	15.8	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 103, BOS 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.95,0.91,0.99,1	93.9%
PHI 94, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.75,0.78,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.97,1,1,1	93.8%
CHA 93, LAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.86,0.81,0.93,0.97,0.96,1	93.7%