NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	80		Excitement	3.4 [1125]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): +8.1%
Golden State Warriors	97		Comeback	1.0 [1243]		LVP	Devin Brown (SAS): -9.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Charlie Ward	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0.04	19	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	12	92%	0.02
Malik Rose	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	7	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	7	44%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	9	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	13	68%	0.12	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	4	92%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	8	80%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	7	64%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	7	39%	0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	9	41%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	18	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	8	62%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	5	29%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.7	33.0	19.8	28.2	3.4	32.2	145.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +43.0%

SAS -1.5%

GSW +2.3%

GSW +3.3%

GSW +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.3	18.3	15.7	94.1	112.8	100.5
season	15.9	16.1		100.1	100.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		101.6	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.8	14.2	15.3	13.4	15.3
GSW	19.1	17.1	18.1	19.3	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	12	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-19	21	14.7	15.4	-0.76	20.7	17.9	2.76
Charlie Ward	8	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-13	9	16.4	15.2	1.17	15.9	18.6	-2.73
Manu Ginobili	43	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-14	11	14.8	15.9	-1.07	19.2	17.5	1.63
Devin Brown	41	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-15	13	15.0	15.7	-0.71	16.0	20.5	-4.58
Robert Horry	44	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-12	7	14.8	15.9	-1.13	18.7	18.0	0.70
Bruce Bowen	31	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-6	-5	16.6	14.6	2.04	19.1	17.9	1.20
Malik Rose	43	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	-7	-3	16.0	14.6	1.43	18.0	18.7	-0.65
Hedo Turkoglu	55	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.12	-18	1	-19	15.3	15.4	-0.13	19.1	17.1	1.96
Tony Parker	77	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	-4	-9	15.2	16.4	-1.17	18.6	15.9	2.73
Rasho Nesterovic	71	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.11	-21	4	-25	15.3	15.2	0.12	17.9	20.3	-2.41

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	70	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.10	22	-5	27	17.9	20.2	-2.26	15.4	15.0	0.38
Erick Dampier	60	59	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.17	23	-6	29	17.9	19.5	-1.59	15.6	14.7	0.90
Clifford Robinson	73	73	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.06	19	-2	21	17.9	20.7	-2.76	15.4	14.7	0.76
Jason Richardson	67	66	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.15	22	-5	27	17.7	20.7	-3.00	15.4	15.1	0.27
Mickael Pietrus	61	60	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.08	15	2	13	19.4	15.8	3.65	15.4	15.1	0.34
Calbert Cheaney	30	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	20	-23	18.6	18.2	0.44	15.1	15.4	-0.27
Troy Murphy	29	29	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	21	-25	19.2	17.9	1.29	14.8	15.6	-0.85
Avery Johnson	30	29	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	22	-27	18.4	18.3	0.03	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Adonal Foyle	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	21	-25	21.8	17.9	3.91	14.4	15.4	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 90, UTA 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
NYK 90, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
DAL 89, PHX 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%