NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	6.9 [418]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +5.6%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	1.0 [805]		LVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): -15.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	20	62%	0.10	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
David Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	5	43%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.01,0.01	-0.08	0.07	-0.01	8	48%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.04
Kevin Willis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	15	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	8	11%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	19	56%	0.11	2	-0.07	12	67%	0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	7	69%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	6	50%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	2	67%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	17	42%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.01	-0.16	0.00	8	58%	-0.12	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.6	16.3	24.9	2.0	44.6	143.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +13.8%

SAS +20.2%

SAS +17.1%

GSW -4.2%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.1	13.9	15.5	107.3	103.1	101.6
season	15.7	14.6		102.5	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.7	16.2	18.8	16.2	16.1
GSW	15.8	13.2	13.3	13.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	37	37	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.53	-2	6	-8	15.4	16.6	-1.14	13.7	14.0	-0.26
Tony Parker	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.20	8	-4	12	16.0	16.6	-0.62	13.3	15.8	-2.52
Malik Rose	52	51	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.41	0	4	-4	15.9	16.4	-0.55	12.6	15.3	-2.64
David Robinson	57	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	2	0	15.9	16.4	-0.46	14.3	13.2	1.04
Stephen Jackson	68	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.41	-4	8	-12	16.8	14.4	2.41	13.4	14.9	-1.48
Tim Duncan	78	79	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	-5	14	16.2	15.9	0.24	14.4	11.5	2.84
Manu Ginobili	36	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	3	-2	16.6	15.9	0.72	14.7	13.4	1.28
Danny Ferry	21	20	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	0	4	14.4	16.6	-2.25	15.7	13.4	2.38
Bruce Bowen	54	53	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	-1	6	16.0	16.3	-0.27	14.1	13.6	0.51
Kevin Willis	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	7	-10	25.2	15.7	9.51	13.7	13.9	-0.12

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bob Sura	16	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-5	6	13.4	14.0	-0.59	16.5	16.1	0.44
Mike Dunleavy	35	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-9	14	13.8	13.9	-0.10	16.1	16.2	-0.13
Antawn Jamison	68	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	0	-4	14.0	13.6	0.41	16.0	16.4	-0.45
Adonal Foyle	48	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-2	0	13.6	14.1	-0.52	16.8	15.5	1.24
Troy Murphy	65	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	4	-12	14.3	12.9	1.42	15.2	18.1	-2.91
Erick Dampier	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-2	0	14.5	12.9	1.63	17.2	14.4	2.77
Earl Boykins	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-5	6	12.9	15.4	-2.53	15.5	17.1	-1.67
Gilbert Arenas	65	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	1	-6	14.0	13.5	0.47	16.9	14.4	2.42
Jason Richardson	66	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	2	-8	13.8	14.0	-0.20	15.6	17.4	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.41,0.38,0.47,0.46,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 106, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.15,0	92.6%
MIA 102, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.38,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.55,0.28,0.1,0.01,0	92.5%
IND 96, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.08,0.12,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.47,0.34,0.25,0.37,0.15,0.07,0	92.1%