NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	6.2 [538]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +15.3%
Boston Celtics	97		Comeback	1.2 [603]		LVP	Eric Williams (BOS): -14.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.11	-0.02	14	50%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	7	79%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	11	72%	0.16	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.00
Brian Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	69%	0.09	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	15	66%	0.14	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	6	59%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.01	3	108%	0.13	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	26	54%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Walter McCarty	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.08,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	-0.09	0.01	23	66%	0.08	3	-0.08	16	94%	0.06
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	2	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.5	28.4	15.4	24.4	2.4	35.7	130.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +77.1%

BOS -25.8%

MIA +12.4%

BOS -13.5%

BOS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	18.0	15.9	15.5	120.0	114.1	100.9
season	16.3	15.1		98.4	99.7
opponent	15.4	16.1		101.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.9	18.4	17.4	17.3	18.0
BOS	18.1	16.6	15.4	14.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	72	71	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.41	10	-5	15	17.5	20.6	-3.14	16.3	14.1	2.22
Tim Hardaway	58	56	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-6	17	17.8	18.4	-0.61	15.5	16.8	-1.26
Anthony Mason	80	80	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	-1	7	17.9	18.6	-0.69	16.0	15.0	0.99
Bruce Bowen	54	54	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	-5	15	18.0	17.9	0.13	16.8	14.5	2.28
Brian Grant	49	51	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.42	-3	8	-11	17.3	18.9	-1.58	14.7	17.8	-3.06
Alonzo Mourning	46	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	4	-3	20.5	15.0	5.50	17.1	14.7	2.41
A.C. Green	9	9	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	5	-5	15.8	18.2	-2.43	16.8	15.8	0.95
Anthony Carter	32	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	9	-13	16.1	19.1	-2.98	15.3	16.3	-1.01
Eddie Jones	25	26	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.10	-6	11	-17	19.6	17.2	2.39	14.9	16.4	-1.51

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	23	24	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.14	11	-16	27	14.3	16.5	-2.29	17.1	18.3	-1.15
Walter McCarty	6	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-2	-1	12.5	16.2	-3.69	9.6	18.8	-9.19
Tony Battie	5	4	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-2	-1	15.4	16.0	-0.56	12.2	18.2	-5.98
Chris Herren	13	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	0	-5	20.0	15.2	4.81	18.8	17.8	0.96
Vitaly Potapenko	58	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.42	8	-13	21	16.5	14.8	1.69	19.4	15.1	4.27
Mark Blount	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	4	-13	15.0	16.2	-1.18	18.1	17.9	0.13
Bryant Stith	24	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	5	-15	16.0	15.9	0.10	18.0	18.0	0.01
Milt Palacio	72	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-5	5	15.2	20.0	-4.81	17.8	18.8	-0.96
Paul Pierce	82	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-5	5	15.6	26.0	-10.44	18.0	16.3	1.68
Antoine Walker	83	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	16.0	11.5	4.54	18.0	12.0	6.02
Eric Williams	41	40	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.22	-11	6	-17	17.6	14.4	3.15	18.3	17.6	0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.38,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.55,0.28,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 103, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.41,0.38,0.47,0.46,0.32,0.09,0	92.5%
MEM 88, TOR 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.29,0.37,0.17,0.41,0.33,0.45,0.37,0.15,0.02,0	91.6%
IND 96, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.08,0.12,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.47,0.34,0.25,0.37,0.15,0.07,0	91.6%