NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	7.9 [226]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +35.1%
Phoenix Suns	104		Comeback	1.7 [395]		LVP	Grant Hill (PHX): -15.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.35	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.35	0.03	0.31	-0.01	23	52%	0.45	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Nate Robinson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.12,0.2,0.2	-0.02	0.20	-0.02	13	47%	0.23	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
David Lee	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.02	18	54%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.11	0.18	-0.05	0.02	11	79%	0.20	1	-0.09	7	86%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	3	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.15	-0.00	13	72%	0.30	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Channing Frye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.03	23	48%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.02	13	55%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	64%	0.02	5	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.33,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	16	42%	-0.02	1	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	28.3	14.8	25.3	2.5	33.4	130.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +35.3%

GSW +16.9%

PHX -4.3%

PHX -0.6%

GSW +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	PHX	NBA	GSW	PHX	NBA
this game	17.4	15.2	15.6	120.5	116.9	102.8
season	15.2	15.0		103.6	104.7
opponent	15.7	15.4		104.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.1	18.2	18.6	19.4	17.4
PHX	13.1	14.5	16.4	17.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	79	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-6	14	16.8	22.1	-5.30	15.4	13.4	1.96
David Lee	68	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.56	-1	3	-4	17.6	16.4	1.17	14.4	18.3	-3.92
Nate Robinson	54	57	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.56	-3	5	-8	18.7	15.2	3.55	15.2	15.1	0.12
Dorell Wright	68	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	-6	14	16.2	21.1	-4.91	15.1	15.6	-0.55
Stephen Curry	20	22	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.13	13	-11	24	14.7	18.1	-3.43	13.1	15.9	-2.74
Dominic McGuire	29	28	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.16	3	-1	4	16.7	17.7	-1.04	18.4	13.7	4.71
Andris Biedrins	35	33	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.07	6	-4	10	16.1	18.2	-2.01	16.2	14.6	1.56
Brandon Rush	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	8	-14	19.3	16.4	2.84	14.5	15.5	-0.97
Klay Thompson	19	18	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.20	-11	13	-24	19.9	16.6	3.31	16.1	15.0	1.14
Ekpe Udoh	40	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	9	-16	18.3	16.5	1.78	14.5	15.8	-1.28

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shannon Brown	32	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.14	8	-10	18	15.2	15.2	-0.07	19.8	16.1	3.66
Michael Redd	31	29	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-5	8	14.6	15.5	-0.85	19.2	16.5	2.71
Robin Lopez	13	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-4	6	15.1	15.2	-0.15	20.0	16.9	3.11
Markieff Morris	20	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-3	4	12.0	16.1	-4.07	16.8	17.5	-0.71
Channing Frye	67	68	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-1	0	16.6	11.0	5.52	17.5	16.8	0.71
Sebastian Telfair	25	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-6	10	14.7	15.4	-0.67	19.4	16.6	2.78
Marcin Gortat	76	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	2	-6	15.2	15.1	0.15	16.9	20.0	-3.11
Steve Nash	65	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	6	-14	15.2	15.3	-0.12	16.6	19.4	-2.78
Grant Hill	58	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	3	-8	15.5	14.6	0.85	16.5	19.2	-2.71
Jared Dudley	58	58	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.30	-10	8	-18	15.0	15.6	-0.63	16.1	19.8	-3.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 103, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.41,0.38,0.47,0.46,0.32,0.09,0	92.6%
PHX 84, POR 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.22,0.33,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.27,0	91.8%
LAL 99, BKN 94	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.55,0.57,0.27,0	91.1%