NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	91		Excitement	6.4 [503]		MVP	Kelvin Cato (HOU): +10.9%
Golden State Warriors	84		Comeback	1.5 [515]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -17.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.02	-0.02	11	73%	0.17	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.01
Yao Ming	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	8	74%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.02
Glen Rice	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	14	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Juaquin Hawkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Terence Morris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.15	-0.00	-0.08	13	41%	-0.00	4	-0.06	8	75%	0.03
Kenny Thomas	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	16	49%	0.02	1	-0.00	9	78%	0.03
Earl Boykins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Oscar Torres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	4	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	15	39%	-0.09	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.02	7	37%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	14	40%	-0.08	2	-0.10	2	0%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.05	0.05	21	40%	-0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.6	29.1	15.6	25.2	2.7	33.3	129.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +63.7%

HOU +2.4%

GSW -11.4%

GSW -6.5%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	16.6	14.3	15.5	97.8	90.3	101.6
season	16.3	14.6		101.7	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.4		106.8	100.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.2	16.2	17.9	16.3	16.6
GSW	15.1	14.4	14.8	13.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	84	84	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	0	7	16.4	19.1	-2.75	14.5	12.4	2.10
Glen Rice	79	79	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	0	7	16.4	17.9	-1.54	13.7	18.1	-4.47
Kenny Thomas	69	69	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	5	-3	16.3	17.4	-1.07	14.4	14.2	0.24
Kelvin Cato	62	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	4	-1	16.8	16.3	0.50	13.5	16.0	-2.53
Juaquin Hawkins	42	42	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	4	-1	17.4	16.0	1.34	16.1	12.9	3.24
Moochie Norris	59	59	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.19	1	6	-5	16.5	16.9	-0.45	13.5	15.8	-2.24
Yao Ming	30	31	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	3	1	16.8	16.5	0.31	16.0	13.5	2.53
Maurice Taylor	24	24	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	2	3	17.4	16.3	1.07	14.2	14.4	-0.24
Terence Morris	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	4	-1	16.8	16.6	0.23	15.0	14.2	0.78

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	2	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-7	7	18.0	14.3	3.74	19.0	16.6	2.43
Oscar Torres	16	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-6	5	13.1	14.6	-1.55	16.0	16.8	-0.76
Danny Fortson	11	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-5	3	16.5	14.0	2.50	19.2	16.2	2.92
Jiri Welsch	21	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-6	5	12.8	14.8	-1.98	16.8	16.6	0.18
Adonal Foyle	40	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-8	9	14.6	14.1	0.49	18.9	15.0	3.92
Mike Dunleavy	37	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-7	7	14.0	14.6	-0.57	16.7	16.6	0.13
Erick Dampier	38	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	0	-7	15.4	13.6	1.78	15.9	17.1	-1.23
Antawn Jamison	79	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-6	5	14.1	15.9	-1.78	16.3	18.4	-2.12
Troy Murphy	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	1	-9	13.7	16.5	-2.82	15.7	19.8	-4.12
Gilbert Arenas	77	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	0	-7	14.8	12.3	2.45	16.2	18.4	-2.19
Jason Richardson	72	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.27	-9	2	-11	14.6	13.5	1.06	17.0	15.3	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, TOR 88	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.6%
CHH 98, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0	94.6%
PHX 104, WAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.12,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0	94.4%