NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	98		Excitement	5.1 [764]		MVP	Glen Rice (CHH): +20.1%
Detroit Pistons	88		Comeback	1.5 [402]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): -14.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.19	0.02	0.01	18	77%	0.22	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Vernon Maxwell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Geiger	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	13	59%	0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Bobby Phills	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	4	70%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.02
J.R. Reid	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	7	60%	0.04	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.00
Travis Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	4	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	9	46%	-0.09	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bison Dele	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	12	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	17	64%	0.06	4	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	4	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	0.03	10	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	7	33%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	12	46%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	28.4	16.7	26.6	1.8	33.5	130.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +30.7%

CHH +21.3%

DET -13.8%

CHH +11.5%

CHH +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	DET	NBA	CHH	DET	NBA
this game	15.9	18.0	15.6	115.3	103.5	102.5
season	15.7	15.9		104.0	102.8
opponent	15.9	15.9		101.1	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	16.3	16.3	15.8	15.3	15.9
DET	18.8	18.9	18.5	16.0	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Rice	73	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-6	22	16.4	13.0	3.36	17.4	21.7	-4.37
Anthony Mason	72	74	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.14	11	-1	12	16.3	13.7	2.59	18.0	17.8	0.21
David Wesley	80	81	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	2	6	15.8	16.8	-0.97	18.1	16.5	1.57
Matt Geiger	66	66	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	2	6	16.2	14.9	1.27	17.8	18.8	-1.02
Vernon Maxwell	40	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	5	0	15.4	16.3	-0.96	18.0	18.0	0.05
Bobby Phills	46	47	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	7	-4	15.9	15.8	0.07	18.5	17.4	1.14
J.R. Reid	19	19	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	6	-2	16.3	15.8	0.49	20.5	17.3	3.19
Donald Royal	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	13	-16	11.7	16.3	-4.56	18.6	17.9	0.62
Travis Williams	21	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	12	-14	14.3	16.4	-2.06	16.7	18.4	-1.63

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	22	23	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-14	18	19.8	17.4	2.39	16.6	15.6	0.94
Bison Dele	53	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-9	8	17.4	19.0	-1.55	16.1	15.6	0.46
Malik Sealy	20	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-6	2	14.7	19.0	-4.25	15.7	15.9	-0.17
Jerome Williams	39	37	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-10	10	16.8	19.0	-2.18	15.1	16.5	-1.32
Jerry Stackhouse	45	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-5	0	17.7	18.3	-0.66	16.7	15.0	1.70
Rick Mahorn	26	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	20.0	17.1	2.88	15.8	15.9	-0.10
Joe Dumars	53	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-2	-6	18.4	17.4	0.95	15.9	15.9	-0.08
Grant Hill	68	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-4	-2	18.6	15.5	3.16	15.4	17.8	-2.35
Scot Pollard	23	23	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	3	-16	19.2	17.5	1.67	16.4	15.7	0.70
Lindsey Hunter	76	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	0	-10	17.7	20.8	-3.11	15.8	16.7	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 91, GSW 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	94.6%
VAN 92, GSW 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
CLE 112, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%