NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	95		Excitement	6.0 [359]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): +8.8%
Toronto Raptors	88		Comeback	1.8 [383]		LVP	Doug Christie (TOR): -20.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	18	63%	0.13	2	-0.04	13	62%	-0.01
Otis Thorpe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	16	94%	0.08
Chris Whitney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jahidi White	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Randell Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	7	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Juwan Howard	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.03	17	35%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	41%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	8	50%	-0.04	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.02
Negele Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	19	53%	-0.02	3	-0.09	9	78%	-0.02
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	2	25%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.04	0.01	14	44%	-0.07	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	12	50%	-0.07	5	-0.14	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.6	35.1	15.4	28.6	2.4	40.4	150.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +32.4%

WAS +5.1%

TOR -20.8%

WAS +33.4%

TOR -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	TOR	NBA	WAS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	15.8	15.8	100.0	93.6	99.6
season	15.5	15.6		98.8	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.9		101.2	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.6	12.4	16.4	15.1	14.7
TOR	14.2	19.7	14.9	14.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	84	82	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	-1	9	15.0	11.8	3.22	16.4	11.8	4.57
Juwan Howard	76	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-3	13	15.0	13.3	1.75	16.9	11.4	5.58
Rod Strickland	80	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.20	8	-1	9	14.9	13.1	1.82	15.4	18.3	-2.91
Tracy Murray	44	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	0	7	14.2	15.0	-0.77	17.6	14.1	3.50
Otis Thorpe	33	35	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	6	-5	15.1	14.5	0.61	13.2	17.4	-4.13
Chris Whitney	18	19	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	4	-1	12.6	15.1	-2.53	16.5	15.7	0.82
Calbert Cheaney	29	28	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.22	-1	8	-9	14.6	14.7	-0.16	12.6	17.2	-4.57
Terry Davis	30	29	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	2	3	15.7	14.2	1.47	15.0	16.2	-1.23
Ben Wallace	33	33	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	7	-7	14.5	14.8	-0.32	17.1	15.1	2.01
Jahidi White	16	14	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	10	-13	12.3	15.1	-2.83	16.6	15.7	0.97
Randell Jackson	32	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	10	-13	14.0	15.0	-1.00	14.5	16.4	-1.90

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	7	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-5	3	22.0	15.3	6.68	11.2	14.9	-3.73
Doug Christie	60	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.29	6	-13	19	15.6	16.2	-0.61	15.0	14.0	1.03
Michael Stewart	6	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-2	-3	13.0	16.0	-3.01	15.4	14.6	0.83
John Wallace	17	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-6	5	13.0	16.4	-3.44	16.5	14.3	2.21
Negele Knight	42	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-1	-5	15.0	16.5	-1.44	13.7	15.4	-1.72
Reggie Slater	20	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	2	-11	12.7	16.7	-3.96	11.0	15.8	-4.83
Kevin Willis	84	84	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-9	11	16.3	11.7	4.61	14.9	12.9	1.98
Alvin Williams	52	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-5	3	17.4	13.9	3.46	14.6	14.8	-0.23
Charles Oakley	58	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-5	3	16.3	15.0	1.37	16.7	11.3	5.45
Vince Carter	72	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	16.1	14.8	1.31	14.7	14.5	0.27
Tracy McGrady	52	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	5	-17	15.0	16.9	-1.88	13.6	16.0	-2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 115, WAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0,0.01,0	94.9%
HOU 91, GSW 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	94.6%
LAL 97, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%