NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	5.8 [650]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +16.3%
Golden State Warriors	100		Comeback	1.9 [748]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -13.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.16	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.02	0.04	30	63%	0.19	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	12	54%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	6	60%	0.04	2	-0.02	8	75%	0.02
Horace Grant	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	60%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	61%	0.03	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Monty Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	33%	-0.05	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	9	64%	0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Cedric Henderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.04	19	60%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.05	10	75%	0.04	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	10	48%	-0.05	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	9	30%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	14	35%	-0.10	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.8	32.1	19.4	25.6	3.5	34.2	144.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.8%

ORL +6.3%

GSW -2.9%

ORL +13.0%

ORL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.6	110.5	108.7	102.3
season	14.6	14.7		104.6	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.8		106.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	12.5	16.3	15.9	14.9
GSW	17.9	17.0	15.0	14.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Ewing	47	46	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-7	19	13.7	16.1	-2.38	17.0	14.9	2.09
Pat Garrity	39	39	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-6	17	16.1	14.1	2.02	16.6	15.4	1.18
Mike Miller	71	68	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	3	-1	14.6	15.8	-1.27	16.0	15.8	0.14
Horace Grant	64	63	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.18	3	2	1	15.3	13.9	1.41	15.8	16.1	-0.30
Tracy McGrady	72	68	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.28	-1	6	-7	14.3	16.7	-2.39	15.8	16.3	-0.48
Darrell Armstrong	69	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	2	1	15.3	13.8	1.54	15.5	17.2	-1.67
Jud Buechler	23	22	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	1	3	14.5	15.0	-0.48	16.3	15.8	0.44
Monty Williams	21	22	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	-2	9	17.0	14.3	2.72	15.8	16.0	-0.21
Troy Hudson	35	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	6	-7	12.5	16.3	-3.80	15.9	15.9	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	14	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	7	-9	15.9	14.7	1.22	15.6	16.0	-0.40
Don Reid	3	3	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	9	-13	16.0	14.8	1.15	19.0	15.8	3.17
Steven Hunter	17	14	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	14	-23	17.6	14.3	3.29	13.0	16.5	-3.46

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Henderson	3	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-5	5	13.0	16.0	-3.03	14.0	14.9	-0.92
Erick Dampier	53	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.27	8	-13	21	15.8	16.1	-0.29	16.0	13.4	2.63
Danny Fortson	65	67	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-11	17	16.6	14.4	2.16	15.7	13.0	2.62
Mookie Blaylock	13	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-1	-3	17.7	15.6	2.05	10.9	15.6	-4.72
Jason Richardson	57	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.26	6	-11	17	15.4	16.8	-1.44	13.7	16.9	-3.26
Antawn Jamison	53	55	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.43	9	-14	23	14.1	18.4	-4.30	16.9	12.1	4.72
Adonal Foyle	9	9	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.08	-10	5	-15	17.9	15.7	2.17	10.4	15.3	-4.90
Chris Mills	30	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	7	-19	18.0	15.0	3.02	12.3	16.1	-3.73
Larry Hughes	77	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-4	3	15.8	16.5	-0.72	15.3	12.5	2.80
Bob Sura	45	45	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	9	-23	16.8	15.1	1.78	15.1	14.7	0.39
Troy Murphy	55	56	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.30	-13	8	-21	15.4	16.8	-1.42	14.6	15.3	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 111, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.2%
CHH 105, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.35,0.21,0.22,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.21,0.19,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	94.0%
VAN 105, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.02,0,0,0	93.8%