NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	7.2 [382]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): +27.8%
Miami Heat	84		Comeback	2.4 [529]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -35.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	69%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mikki Moore	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.02	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07	-0.02	0.08	0.00	2	50%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jud Buechler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	7	56%	-0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	8	39%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.35	-0.07	-0.28	0.00	22	52%	-0.10	5	-0.25	6	83%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.28	0.28	-0.00	0.28	-0.01	18	59%	0.37	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	12	65%	0.09	1	-0.04	10	80%	0.03
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	60%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	2	17%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.11	-0.01	7	59%	-0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	8	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	5	-0.21	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	31.3	19.0	28.4	3.3	37.5	150.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +15.0%

MIA +3.4%

MIA +18.5%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.4	15.2	91.1	93.3	101.7
season	14.1	15.7		104.2	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.2	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.9	14.1	15.7	16.6	15.6
MIA	14.1	17.2	17.0	17.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	38	39	0.85	-1.35	2.21	0.38	16	-18	34	14.8	16.1	-1.33	17.5	15.6	1.93
Mikki Moore	14	12	0.20	-0.70	0.91	0.15	2	-4	6	19.2	14.9	4.33	16.7	16.4	0.35
John Crotty	34	35	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.06	5	-7	12	16.1	15.2	0.81	17.1	16.1	1.00
Grant Hill	40	41	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-3	4	15.6	15.5	0.17	17.2	15.8	1.33
Jud Buechler	6	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	0	-2	19.3	15.3	4.05	16.6	16.4	0.16
Michael Curry	59	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-4	6	15.5	15.6	-0.14	16.5	16.3	0.28
Lindsey Hunter	56	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	5	-12	15.2	16.1	-0.81	16.1	17.1	-1.00
Jerry Stackhouse	75	75	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.52	-5	3	-8	15.2	17.1	-1.89	16.0	18.9	-2.91
Christian Laettner	64	66	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.48	-16	14	-30	15.7	15.3	0.35	15.9	18.0	-2.06
Terry Mills	64	63	-1.11	0.61	-1.71	-0.93	-6	4	-10	15.1	16.7	-1.54	16.3	16.8	-0.53

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	75	75	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.52	13	-11	24	16.1	18.1	-1.95	16.2	12.3	3.95
Jamal Mashburn	78	78	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.53	9	-7	16	15.8	20.6	-4.78	15.7	14.5	1.22
P.J. Brown	46	47	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.37	3	-1	4	16.6	16.3	0.25	15.9	15.2	0.66
Bruce Bowen	45	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	4	-6	17.2	15.6	1.60	16.1	15.1	1.06
Anthony Carter	78	79	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	2	-2	16.5	15.9	0.61	15.5	15.7	-0.20
Dan Majerle	76	78	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	4	-6	16.4	16.4	0.02	15.4	16.3	-0.90
Otis Thorpe	26	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	0	2	15.4	16.9	-1.44	15.4	15.6	-0.22
Clar. Weatherspoon	26	26	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.02	-13	15	-28	18.5	15.6	2.84	12.3	16.9	-4.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.71,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 93, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.59,0.65,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.94,0.73,1	91.9%
ATL 79, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.98,1,1	91.6%
CHI 100, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.79,0.8,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.57,0.77,1	91.4%