NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	9.3 [121]		MVP	Zach Randolph (POR): +29.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	94		Comeback	2.6 [722]		LVP	Darius Miles (POR): -21.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	7	68%	0.16	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Salim Stoudamire	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	11	54%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
John Edwards	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.13,0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	16	62%	0.18	5	-0.14	5	40%	-0.10
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Donta Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02	0.04	-0.06	0.00	12	54%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Esteban Batista	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	11	52%	0.06	3	-0.14	1	0%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.3	0.30	-0.06	0.36	-0.01	16	51%	0.52	5	-0.22	9	78%	0.03
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	6	71%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	7	42%	0.13	1	-0.06	5	40%	-0.07
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Sergei Monia	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	57%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.17	-0.04	15	56%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Darius Miles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.00	15	38%	-0.02	4	-0.20	7	57%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.0	30.1	15.7	30.9	2.4	41.4	145.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -21.5%

POR +57.1%

POR +44.2%

ATL -37.4%

POR +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	POR	NBA	ATL	POR	NBA
this game	15.8	17.1	15.6	106.9	106.8	104.4
season	15.6	16.6		103.9	99.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		109.8	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.0	16.1	15.6	17.8	15.8
POR	16.7	17.4	16.3	18.2	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Edwards	30	29	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.10	4	-5	9	16.1	15.6	0.42	15.4	18.0	-2.59
Salim Stoudamire	44	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.22	6	-7	13	16.2	15.3	0.88	15.5	18.7	-3.23
Marvin Williams	46	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	2	-5	16.1	15.5	0.62	16.2	18.1	-1.92
Esteban Batista	30	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.00	-3	2	-5	13.7	16.9	-3.25	16.4	17.5	-1.10
Tyronn Lue	49	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	5	-11	15.5	16.2	-0.74	17.6	16.4	1.27
Josh Smith	55	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.51	3	-4	7	16.6	14.3	2.29	17.5	16.5	1.02
Josh Childress	51	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.48	1	-2	3	15.8	15.7	0.07	18.3	15.4	2.97
Joe Johnson	74	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.53	0	-1	1	15.7	16.2	-0.42	17.2	16.6	0.58
Zaza Pachulia	56	58	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.58	-7	6	-13	15.7	15.9	-0.22	18.3	14.9	3.41

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	63	61	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.56	7	-6	13	17.9	15.2	2.62	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Zach Randolph	66	66	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.50	7	-6	13	17.6	15.7	1.91	15.8	15.7	0.17
Ruben Patterson	39	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	4	-7	17.0	17.2	-0.20	16.5	15.3	1.21
Theo Ratliff	35	32	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.22	2	-1	3	18.7	16.1	2.56	17.1	15.0	2.06
Darius Miles	68	68	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	5	-9	16.9	17.9	-1.08	15.4	17.2	-1.81
Jarrett Jack	34	33	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	0	1	16.6	17.4	-0.76	16.5	15.3	1.21
Juan Dixon	21	22	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.33	-6	7	-13	15.0	17.8	-2.71	14.6	16.2	-1.55
Sergei Monia	56	58	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	-1	3	16.8	17.7	-0.95	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Martell Webster	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	2	-3	17.8	17.1	0.77	15.2	15.8	-0.67
Joel Przybilla	52	53	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	-0.10	0	1	-1	16.4	18.1	-1.74	15.4	16.4	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.59,0.65,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.94,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.71,1	91.9%
NOP 99, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	91.3%
SEA 94, NJN 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.85,1,1	91.2%