NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	79		Excitement	6.4 [544]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +9.0%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	2.4 [782]		LVP	Alan Henderson (ATL): -15.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Crawford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	22	48%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	9	70%	0.14	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	8	44%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roshown McLeod	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	10	40%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	4	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.03	0.03	15	37%	-0.08	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.06	0.08	15	74%	0.18	2	-0.09	5	80%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	7	80%	0.13	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	16	61%	0.15	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	21	47%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	27.3	16.5	22.7	1.8	29.6	122.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.2%

SAS +11.1%

ATL -12.4%

SAS +16.0%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.4	15.3	15.2	87.8	102.2	101.7
season	15.4	15.5		99.3	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.2		95.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	14.7	18.1	18.4	16.4
SAS	15.7	13.0	16.2	16.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Rider	18	18	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-21	27	12.3	17.4	-5.06	12.8	15.9	-3.11
Chris Crawford	11	11	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-19	23	11.5	17.1	-5.61	13.9	15.5	-1.56
Lorenzen Wright	11	12	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-17	19	10.0	17.3	-7.27	12.7	15.7	-2.91
Jason Terry	61	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.23	-13	-2	-11	16.7	15.6	1.12	15.2	15.5	-0.25
Roshown McLeod	44	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-3	-9	17.1	15.7	1.44	15.9	14.7	1.22
Bimbo Coles	29	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-13	11	15.6	16.7	-1.12	15.5	15.2	0.25
LaPhonso Ellis	49	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-8	1	15.8	17.0	-1.19	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Alan Henderson	76	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.02	-15	0	-15	17.0	12.9	4.08	15.6	13.7	1.85
Dikembe Mutombo	79	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.01	-17	2	-19	17.3	10.0	7.27	15.7	12.7	2.91
Jim Jackson	72	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.01	-21	6	-27	17.4	12.3	5.06	15.9	12.8	3.11

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	64	63	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.08	29	-14	43	15.9	14.0	1.90	17.5	13.7	3.77
Avery Johnson	72	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.15	16	-1	17	16.1	12.3	3.81	17.2	13.7	3.54
Mario Elie	64	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	5	5	16.0	13.5	2.51	16.7	15.6	1.17
Tim Duncan	75	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	0	15	16.2	11.2	4.96	17.2	12.6	4.60
Sean Elliott	21	21	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.09	13	2	11	17.2	14.7	2.53	18.5	15.7	2.80
Jerome Kersey	56	54	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	10	-5	15.0	15.7	-0.68	15.7	17.4	-1.78
Jaren Jackson	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.09	2	13	-11	12.3	16.7	-4.39	14.4	17.3	-2.85
Antonio Daniels	34	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	16	-17	13.9	16.1	-2.22	15.5	16.9	-1.41
Malik Rose	16	17	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	22	-29	13.4	15.7	-2.23	12.0	17.4	-5.40
Samaki Walker	29	27	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	22	-29	12.7	16.5	-3.84	14.1	17.3	-3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, PHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.81,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.4%
NOP 99, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	92.2%
ATL 108, NJN 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.94,0.98,1	92.2%