NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	130		Excitement	7.8 [280]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +49.0%
Dallas Mavericks	128		Comeback	5.0 [211]		LVP	Dwight Howard (HOU): -7.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.49	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.49	0.23	0.29	0.03	24	76%	0.61	5	-0.12	7	100%	0.05
Corey Brewer	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	11	62%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Clint Capela	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Josh Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	15	53%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.02	9	52%	0.01	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	52%	0.02	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.41	0.41	0.22	0.20	0.01	19	69%	0.43	1	-0.02	11	100%	0.16
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	5	94%	0.21	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	4	73%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	69%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.04	0.04	0.18	-0.10	0.04	25	65%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	8	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.05
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.4	2.8	32.8	16.4	30.5	2.7	42.7	159.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +56.1%

DAL -22.7%

HOU +17.6%

DAL -8.3%

HOU +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	15.1	132.7	129.3	104.2
season	14.3	14.6		105.6	107.6
opponent	15.0	14.9		105.0	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.3	14.2	15.6	17.0	15.2
DAL	13.3	13.0	15.7	14.3	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	78	78	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.34	16	-14	30	15.4	14.4	0.97	14.3	12.9	1.42
Trevor Ariza	77	78	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-10	22	15.7	13.4	2.35	14.5	12.2	2.32
Jason Terry	51	52	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-14	30	16.3	14.0	2.27	14.8	13.1	1.70
James Harden	72	73	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.28	-1	3	-4	15.3	14.9	0.46	14.2	13.4	0.86
Josh Smith	57	58	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.51	-10	12	-22	14.8	15.8	-0.91	12.9	15.6	-2.67
Terrence Jones	47	49	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	-2	6	15.8	14.7	1.04	15.2	12.8	2.42
Corey Brewer	49	49	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.41	-11	13	-24	14.1	16.3	-2.24	12.9	15.1	-2.18
Pablo Prigioni	45	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	12	-22	14.2	16.1	-1.98	13.1	14.8	-1.75
Clint Capela	14	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	8	-14	13.9	15.5	-1.60	12.5	14.2	-1.71

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	55	53	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.38	22	-24	46	12.9	15.5	-2.62	15.4	15.0	0.37
Raymond Felton	24	26	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-5	8	16.2	13.3	2.89	16.0	14.9	1.06
Charlie Villanueva	23	23	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-4	6	13.0	14.3	-1.33	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Amar'e Stoudemire	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-8	14	13.4	14.3	-0.87	14.5	15.6	-1.04
Richard Jefferson	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	7	-16	15.9	13.4	2.49	14.8	15.4	-0.57
Al-Farouq Aminu	71	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-1	0	13.9	14.2	-0.27	15.3	15.0	0.27
Dirk Nowitzki	73	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.49	2	-4	6	14.3	13.2	1.07	15.8	13.6	2.19
Tyson Chandler	68	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	6	-14	14.3	13.4	0.87	15.6	14.5	1.04
Monta Ellis	80	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	4	-10	13.8	14.7	-0.89	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Devin Harris	45	45	-0.90	0.40	-1.31	-0.29	-21	19	-40	13.7	14.3	-0.53	14.1	16.2	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.82,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.2,0.32,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, DAL 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	91.2%
POR 105, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.26,0.15,0.24,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	90.9%
DET 90, ATL 78	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	90.8%