NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	108		Excitement	9.7 [90]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +90.2%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	11.7 [97]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -23.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25	0.12	0.14	0.01	14	65%	0.25	0	0.00	6	100%	0.09
Manu Ginobili	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.22,0.25	-0.08	0.32	-0.00	14	37%	0.33	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Boris Diaw	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.24	0.03	0.21	-0.00	5	70%	0.28	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.06	0.16	-0.00	8	89%	0.35	5	-0.14	3	33%	-0.04
Tiago Splitter	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	8	78%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	3	117%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	18	53%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	5	42%	-0.00	2	-0.11	2	50%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.9	0.90	0.02	0.88	-0.00	8	55%	0.92	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.52,0.7	0.70	0.16	0.53	-0.01	22	63%	0.74	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21	0.21	0.08	0.15	0.01	8	62%	0.21	0	0.00	5	100%	0.09
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	5	30%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.05	-0.12	0.01	10	80%	0.09	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.03,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.10	-0.02	13	56%	-0.00	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.07	-0.17	-0.00	11	37%	-0.10	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	3.5	26.4	18.6	35.1	3.4	43.3	152.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.0%

DAL +17.6%

DAL +12.8%

SAS -13.4%

DAL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.9	15.1	114.9	114.7	105.2
season	15.0	15.3		109.8	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.0		107.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.1	18.8	13.9	16.0	15.5
DAL	15.3	17.2	13.8	14.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	29	31	0.58	-1.08	1.67	0.38	7	-8	15	12.7	16.8	-4.11	15.3	14.8	0.56
Marco Belinelli	29	30	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.05	6	-7	13	13.8	16.3	-2.46	15.3	14.8	0.52
Matt Bonner	7	7	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.04	4	-5	9	16.3	15.5	0.81	19.3	14.6	4.68
Boris Diaw	44	43	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-2	3	16.0	15.2	0.79	15.4	14.5	0.90
Tiago Splitter	56	56	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.00	1	-2	3	15.5	15.6	-0.08	15.8	13.7	2.17
Tony Parker	64	64	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	4	-9	17.1	12.3	4.80	14.8	15.3	-0.56
Manu Ginobili	64	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.48	10	-11	21	15.1	16.5	-1.42	15.1	14.6	0.46
Danny Green	29	29	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.58	-3	2	-5	13.8	16.3	-2.46	13.0	15.8	-2.75
Kawhi Leonard	75	76	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.47	-7	6	-13	16.1	13.3	2.78	14.9	15.2	-0.33
Cory Joseph	1	0	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.83	-3	2	-5	0.0	15.7	-15.70	0.0	14.9	-14.95
Tim Duncan	72	74	-0.94	0.44	-1.39	-0.47	-16	15	-31	16.4	12.6	3.78	14.1	17.9	-3.74

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	56	60	1.12	-0.62	1.74	0.71	14	-13	27	14.6	15.5	-0.87	15.8	15.1	0.70
Dirk Nowitzki	77	76	1.08	-0.58	1.66	0.76	11	-10	21	15.2	13.7	1.58	15.9	13.8	2.10
Vince Carter	46	48	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.67	-6	7	-13	14.7	15.2	-0.45	15.0	16.1	-1.04
Monta Ellis	74	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	0	1	14.9	15.0	-0.07	15.3	16.3	-0.98
Brandan Wright	36	35	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.57	-4	5	-9	15.7	14.5	1.16	16.1	15.2	0.84
Samuel Dalembert	49	47	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.21	12	-11	23	14.8	15.1	-0.35	16.4	14.7	1.74
DeJuan Blair	7	7	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	7	-13	14.9	15.0	-0.10	12.0	15.8	-3.82
Shawn Marion	65	63	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.22	0	1	-1	14.6	15.7	-1.05	15.7	15.3	0.41
Jae Crowder	23	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.26	-3	4	-7	15.4	14.8	0.59	15.6	15.5	0.05
Devin Harris	42	39	-0.55	1.05	-1.60	-0.14	-14	15	-29	15.0	14.9	0.14	14.3	16.4	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.61,0.45,0.21,0.1,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 103, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.54,0.72,0.62,0.36,0.15,0.08,1	90.8%
NYK 90, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.42,1	89.9%
NJN 86, WAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.4,0.61,0.36,0.23,0.28,1	89.7%