NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	8.2 [223]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +51.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Comeback	3.2 [587]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -23.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.02	11	73%	0.28	2	-0.10	8	50%	-0.06
Al Harrington	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	10	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	45%	0.09	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.09	0.06	-0.11	0.04	11	64%	0.06	2	-0.15	6	67%	-0.03
Kenyon Martin	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	12	36%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.18,-0.23	-0.05	-0.20	-0.02	11	44%	-0.12	2	-0.11	5	80%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52	0.52	0.25	0.28	0.01	22	69%	0.53	1	-0.01	15	80%	0.01
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.09	-0.02	7	86%	0.20	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.13	-0.00	4	50%	0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.01	1	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	5	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	8	17%	-0.16	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.37,-0.23	-0.23	0.06	-0.26	0.03	23	61%	0.01	5	-0.25	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	3.4	33.5	19.4	27.3	2.7	41.2	155.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +32.6%

DEN -6.5%

OKC +8.9%

OKC +14.6%

OKC +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.6	16.4	15.5	109.6	116.3	105.7
season	14.3	15.0		110.7	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.4	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.4	15.9	16.8	13.8	14.6
OKC	16.4	14.7	18.4	16.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	63	62	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-7	10	13.7	16.4	-2.64	16.8	15.5	1.34
Chris Andersen	26	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.07	1	-5	6	15.3	14.4	0.90	17.3	16.0	1.31
Ty Lawson	69	69	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.38	9	-13	22	13.9	16.7	-2.81	16.3	16.5	-0.14
Al Harrington	22	20	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	1	-6	16.3	14.1	2.16	16.7	16.3	0.49
J.R. Smith	34	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	7	-18	15.6	14.0	1.61	15.7	16.7	-0.99
Kenyon Martin	64	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-3	2	14.1	15.7	-1.59	16.6	15.8	0.79
Danilo Gallinari	59	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	0	-4	15.7	12.9	2.80	16.9	15.5	1.38
Nene	66	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	0	-4	14.7	14.4	0.27	16.0	17.3	-1.31
Raymond Felton	67	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	4	-12	14.4	15.2	-0.85	15.5	18.4	-2.91

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	84	85	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	2	0	16.4	15.6	0.82	14.0	20.4	-6.44
Kendrick Perkins	53	52	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	6	-8	17.2	15.2	2.02	14.2	15.1	-0.95
Nick Collison	49	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	-8	20	15.8	17.1	-1.31	15.3	13.8	1.52
Eric Maynor	20	23	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-4	12	16.6	16.3	0.29	15.0	14.5	0.56
James Harden	51	52	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	-3	10	15.2	17.8	-2.59	14.9	14.3	0.60
Thabo Sefolosha	42	44	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.37	-4	8	-12	17.4	15.5	1.90	13.8	15.3	-1.54
Russell Westbrook	72	72	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.36	-4	8	-12	16.3	16.6	-0.29	14.3	15.5	-1.15
Serge Ibaka	49	48	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.34	-4	8	-12	16.6	16.1	0.43	13.8	15.4	-1.60
Nazr Mohammed	32	34	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	1	2	16.1	16.5	-0.47	16.3	13.7	2.58
Daequan Cook	8	9	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	2	0	15.6	16.4	-0.82	20.4	14.0	6.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.45,0.29,0.43,0.42,1	91.8%
HOU 80, ATL 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.72,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.28,0.34,0.58,1	90.8%
NJN 88, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.91,1	90.4%